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theliberaltony · 6 years ago

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via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

Welcome to Pollapalooza, our weekly polling roundup.

Poll of the week

Political junkies might think the whole country is devotedly following the 2020 presidential campaign (FiveThirtyEight certainly is). But remember, the election is still more than a year away. So it’s definitely fair to ask just how many people are already tuning in.

And with this in mind, a new survey from the Associated Press and the NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just 35 percent of Democrats1 said they were paying “a good deal” or “a lot” of attention to the campaign so far. Or in other words, only about one-third of Democrats are seriously following the goings-on of the campaign.

But one-third seemed a bit low to me, given that other pollsters have found that Democrats care a lot about picking a candidate they think can defeat President Trump this year, so I took a look at what other pollsters have found this cycle. I found that Quinnipiac University has asked a version of this question three times so far in 2019, finding each time that Democrats are paying quite a bit of attention to the race. For example, 74 percent said they were either paying “a lot” or “some” attention in the most recent survey.2

Democrats aren’t sleeping on 2020

Amount of attention Democratic respondents are paying to the 2020 campaign, according to three 2019 Quinnipiac surveys

Dates None at all Not much Some A lot June 6-10 8% 18% 29% 45% May 16-20 4 19 34 44 April 26-30 3 12 27 58

* Don’t know/not applicable not shown.

Source: Quinnipiac University

So what’s going on here? Well, it’s probably not that there’s a huge discrepancy in the number of Democrats paying attention to the election, but rather just a difference in how AP-NORC and Quinnipiac have asked this question. AP-NORC gave respondents five choices: “a lot,”, “a good deal,” “some,” “not much,” “no attention so far,” whereas Quinnipiac only offered four choices, not giving respondents the “a good deal” option.3 This means that in the AP-NORC survey, “some” is used as a middle-of-the-road response, whereas “some” is one of the Quinnipiac poll’s more attentive options. This means these polls aren’t directly comparable, but if you were to add the “some” response in AP-NORC’s survey to those who said they were paying “a lot” or “a good deal” of attention, you’d get 71 percent of Democrats in the AP-NORC poll who say they are following the race at least to “some” degree, which is roughly in line with what Quinnipiac has found.

And if we go back to previous cycles, the numbers from Quinnipiac actually suggest that Democrats are paying just as much attention as they normally would, or even more than usual. A CBS News/New York Times poll from early August 2015 that gave respondents options similar to Quinnipiac found that 72 percent of Democrats were paying either “a lot” or “some” attention. In other words, a poll that came out in August 2015 found Democrats to be just as attentive as a June 2019 survey. Plus, if you compare the people who said they were paying “a lot” of attention in both surveys, you’ll see that only 28 percent said that in the 2015 poll, compared to 45 percent in the Quinnipiac poll. And if we rewind eight more years to a late June 2007 survey from CBS News/New York Times, 71 percent of Democrats said they were paying “a lot” or “some” attention to the race, which is analogous to what Quinnipiac found in its June survey, with, once again, the share saying they were paying “a lot” of attention to the race (20 percent) much lower than what Quinnipiac has found in its 2019 polls.

So don’t read too much into that one AP-NORC survey. It turns out that Democrats may be paying as much attention as usual (or even more).

Other polling bites

A new report from the Pew Research Center shows a huge partisan gap over Americans’ attitudes toward capitalism and socialism. Republicans had sharply positive views of capitalism, with 78 percent holding a positive view and just 20 percent holding a negative one. But Democrats held mixed views: 55 percent had a positive impression while 44 percent had a negative one. Conversely, socialism was thoroughly disliked by Republicans, with only 15 percent holding a positive view and 84 percent holding a negative one. But Democrats were much more positive. Sixty-five percent had a positive impression and 33 percent had a negative one.4

New polling from Democratic pollster Global Strategy Group suggests that Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell might make a better target for Democratic candidates in 12 battleground states than President Trump. The survey, sponsored by campaign finance reform group End Citizens United, found Democrats ahead 48 percent to 45 percent on the generic ballot in those swing states. The pollster tested three different messages using McConnell, Trump and Republicans in Congress as foils to see how they changed voting intention. The language about McConnell produced the largest Democratic gain in the margin on the generic ballot — nine percentage points — while the language about Republicans in Congress and Trump increased the Democratic edge by six and three points, respectively.

According to a survey from the Kaiser Family Foundation conducted just before the first Democratic debates, health care was the topic Democrats5 wanted to hear about most — 87 percent said it was very important for the candidates to talk about it. Other issues that were top priorities included: issues affecting women (80 percent), climate change (73 percent), gun policy (72 percent) and income inequality (70 percent).

Speaking of the debates, a number of candidates spoke in Spanish at different points, and YouGov recently found that 42 percent of Americans thought candidates are “pandering” when doing this versus 31 percent who believed they are being “respectful.” Among Democrats, 46 percent felt it was respectful compared to 32 percent who said it was pandering. Hispanic Americans also were more likely to view it as respectful (37 percent) than pandering (27 percent).

Young voters were an important part of Bernie Sanders’s presidential campaign in 2016, and new polling from College Pulse found that Democratic college students6 are more supportive of the Vermont senator than other candidates. The group’s latest data showed Sanders with 26 percent, Elizabeth Warren at 20 percent, Biden at 17 percent and Pete Buttigieg at 10 percent. However, this represents continued improvement for Warren, who was in the single digits in April, while Sanders has slid from the low 30s to where he is now.

A new report from the Public Religion Research Institute found that only a relatively small share of Americans support refusing services to various minority groups for religious reasons, but that the share has increased in the past five years. Among the key findings was that 30 percent of Americans support business owners refusing service to LGBTQ individuals if it violates their religious beliefs. In 2014, only 16 percent of Americans supported this position.

Last week, President Trump decided to hold off on ordering a military strike against Iran, which had shot down a U.S. surveillance drone. A new HarrisX poll found that 26 percent of Americans support taking military action against Iran while 39 percent oppose such a move. Another 34 percent said they were not sure.

Trump approval

According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker, 42.3 percent of Americans approve of the job Trump is doing as president, while 52.7 percent disapprove (a net approval rating of -10.4 points). At this time last week, 42.5 percent approved and 53.1 percent disapproved (for a net approval rating of -10.6 points). One month ago, Trump had an approval rating of 41.2 percent and a disapproval rating of 54.0 percent, for a net approval rating of -12.8 points.

Generic ballot

In our average of polls of the generic congressional ballot, Democrats currently lead by 5.8 percentage points (46.1 percent to 40.3 percent). A week ago, Democrats led Republicans by 6.2 points (46.0 percent to 39.8 percent). At this time last month, voters preferred Democrats by 5.0 points (45.4 percent to 40.4 percent).

Check out all the polls we’ve been collecting ahead of the 2020 elections.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Geoffrey Skelley

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patriotsnet · 3 years ago

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How Many Votes Do Republicans Need To Repeal Obamacare

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-votes-do-republicans-need-to-repeal-obamacare/

How Many Votes Do Republicans Need To Repeal Obamacare

Schumer: ‘we Can Work Together Our Country Demands It’

Senate Republicans fail to get necessary votes to repeal and replace Obamacare

Until the end, passage on the Health Care Freedom Act, also dubbed the skinny repeal, was never certain. Even Republicans who voted for it disliked the bill.

The skinny bill as policy is a disaster. The skinny bill as a replacement for Obamacare is a fraud. The skinny bill is a vehicle to getting conference to find a replacement, Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., said at a Thursday evening news conference hours before the vote alongside fellow Republicans McCain, Ron Johnson and Bill Cassidy, before the details were released.

The skinny repeal was far from Republicans campaign promise of also rolling back Medicaid expansion, insurance subsidies, Obamacare taxes, and insurance regulations.

Many Republicans who did vote for it said they were holding their nose to vote for it just to advance the process into negotiations with the House of Representatives.

The legislation included a repeal of the individual mandate to purchase insurance, a repeal of the employer mandate to provide insurance, a one-year defunding of Planned Parenthood, a provision giving states more flexibility to opt out of insurance regulations, and a three-year repeal of the medical device tax. It also would have increased the amount that people can contribute to Health Savings Accounts.

Leigh Ann Caldwell is an NBC News correspondent.

Kevin Mccarthy: Republicans Can Repeal Obamacare Before Replacing It

House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy said Tuesday that Republicans could repeal Obamacare before finding a replacement for it, according to the Hill.

I dont think you have to wait, McCarthy told reporters. My personal belief, and nothings been decided yet, but I would move through and repeal and then go to work on replacing.

But healthcare experts, including some Republicans, say this approach could cause chaos for Obamacare enrollees and the insurance market during that period of time between the repeal of the law and when a replacement is found.

McCarthy and others have called for a transition period where Obamacare would be phased out gradually over a period of two years or another specified period of time after a repeal of the law is passed.

Even so, critics have said that insurers could leave the system once they know the law is being phased out, leaving no options for those enrolled in Obamacare for 2018.

Insurers have already left the exchanges in some states, leaving people with only one insurer to choose from when purchasing plans on the exchange.

The task of repealing and replacing Obamacare at the same time, however, could prove difficult for Republicans.

They need just 50 votes in the Senate to repeal the core of the healthcare law, but they need 60 votes in the Senate to pass a replacement to the law, which means the replacement would have to have support from Democrats as well as Republicans.

What We Learned In The House: Support For A Repeal Bill Can Happen Quickly

One lesson Ive taken from the past year of covering the Obamacare repeal-and-replace debate is that these bills look doomed to fail up until the moment they dont.

Take, for example, the American Health Care Act that the House passed this May. Within 48 hours, the bill went from doomed to sailing right through. The most puzzling part was how little happened in between.

Moderate Republicans like Rep. Fred Upton were critical of the bill because of how it could affect Americans with preexisting conditions. Upton publicly came out against the Obamacare repeal bill on May 2 in an interview with a local radio station. But literally the next day, he announced that a small tweak to the bill would win his support.

The tweaks didnt actually fix the core problems that Upton had with the bill. He secured a small pot of funding to help those with preexisting conditions and used that as cover to vote for a bill that would cause 22 million Americans to lose coverage.

Other Republicans quickly fell in line behind Upton, even though no major changes were made to quell their concerns, and the American Health Care Act passed the House on May 4.

Of course, some Republican plans that look doomed are, in fact, doomed. But at this stage, its really hard to tell the difference. Sometimes, as we saw in the House, a small amendment can make all the difference in flipping the key no votes to yes. Sometimes, as weve seen in the Senate, the votes just arent there.

You May Like: How Many Registered Republicans Are In The United States

Trumps Executive Action Could Erode Marketplace Built Under Obamacare

Attempts to repeal portions of the Affordable Care Act have failed in the past several months, leading President Donald Trump to issue an executive order expanding access to cheaper, less comprehensive health care plans.

The order, signed on Oct. 12, instructs federal agencies to remove certain limitations on “association health plans” and expand the availability of short-term health plans, both of which can skirt certain minimum coverage requirements included in the Affordable Care Act and state laws.

These changes will not immediately take effect; federal agencies will have to figure out how to act on Trump’s directions.

The executive action orders agencies to explore ways in which the government can expand access to short-term health plans, which are available to individuals on a three-month basis and meant for people who are in-between health care coverage plans. Under the instructions, association health plans would be allowed to sell plans across state lines; those plans allow small businesses to band together to create cheaper health care plans that offer fewer benefits.

The order was intended to create more options for individuals seeking health insurance and help stimulate competition among insurers. Some health policy advocates worry that it could disrupt the insurance marketplace in a way that would drive up health care costs for elderly individuals and people with medical conditions.

It will be months before changes are seen in the marketplace.

Likely To Vote No: 1 Senate Republican

Alaskas Lisa Murkowski also voted against all three versions of repeal in July, criticizing what she viewed as an overly secretive and partisan process to write the various bills and raising concerns about the Medicaid cuts. She has not slammed the GOP repeal effort as aggressively as Collins, but she does not sound especially inclined to back Cassidy-Graham.

So if Collins and Murkowski are no votes, Republicans need all four members below to vote yes.

Recommended Reading: How Many Seats Do Republicans Hold In Congress

Senate Gop Tries One Last Time To Repeal Obamacare

McConnell and his lieutenants will gauge support for the bill this week in private party meetings.

By BURGESS EVERETT and JOSH DAWSEY

09/17/2017 02:51 PM EDT

Republicans say Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell wont bring up the bill if there is any chance of failure, given the dramatic collapse in the summer. | john Shinkle/POLITICO

Obamacare repeal is on the brink of coming back from the dead.

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and his leadership team are seriously considering voting on a bill that would scale back the federal governments role in the health care system and instead provide block grants to states, congressional and Trump administration sources said.

It would be a last-ditch attempt to repeal Obamacare before the GOPs power to pass health care legislation through a party-line vote in the Senate expires on Sept. 30.

No final decision has been made, but the GOP leader has told his caucus that if the bill written by Sens. Lindsey Graham and Bill Cassidy has the support of at least 50 of the 52 GOP senators, he will bring it to the floor, Graham and Cassidy say. That would give Republicans one more crack at repealing the Affordable Care Act, a longtime party pledge.

Your guide to the permanent campaign weekday mornings, in your inbox.

Some Republicans believe that if the bill were put on the floor Monday, it would have the support of 49 senators.

Obama: Gop Blocked 500 Bills

President Barack Obama is railing against congressional Republicans, telling a Hollywood crowd that the midterm elections are crucial because the GOP is willing to say no to everything.

The president, speaking at a Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee event Wednesday evening hosted at Walt Disney Studios Chairman Alan Horns home, said Republicans have been obstructionist since even before he took office.

Their willingness to say no to everything the fact that since 2007, they have filibustered about 500 pieces of legislation that would help the middle class just gives you a sense of how opposed they are to any progress has actually led to an increase in cynicism and discouragement among the people who were counting on us to fight for them, Obama said of Republicans.

The conclusion is, well, nothing works, the president continued. And the problem is, is that for the folks worth fighting for for the person whos cleaning up that house or hotel, for the guy who used to work on construction but now has been laid off they need us. Not because they want a handout, but because they know that government can serve an important function in unleashing the power of our private sector.

Obama opened by saying that he is in trouble at home, because in 2012 he had told his wife, first lady Michelle Obama, that he had run his last campaign.

Recommended Reading: When Did Republicans Turn Against Nixon

Wild Cards: 4 Senate Republicans

Utahs Mike Lee and Kentuckys Rand Paul have been continual roadblocks for Republicans during the repeal process, fighting it from the right and essentially opposing any legislation that leaves Obamacares rules and regulations in place. Lee has been noncommittal about Cassidy-Graham. But Paul has attacked it, arguing that it still gives states the choice and ability to effectively leave Obamacare in place. He sounds like a hard no right now, but Im skeptical he would cast the vote to block an Obamacare repeal bill. The reason: Paul has cultivated a brand as a strong conservative, so a vote that would, in effect, save Obamacare would not be ideal for him.

Kansass Jerry Moran, meanwhile, has been a vocal defender of Medicaid, so its not clear if he would back a bill that cuts Medicaid as much as Graham-Cassidy does.

McCain, for his part, was a key vote against Obamacare repeal in July and it seemed like a capstone to the Arizona senators career as a self-described maverick. He urged Republicans just this Sunday not to engage in a hurried process that skips over the relevant committees and doesnt include Democrats. Cassidy-Graham is being rushed, hasnt gone through the committees for hearings and has no Democratic support.

Want the latest politics news? Get it in your inbox.

Gop Has A Month To Pass Obamacare Repeal With 51

Republicans vote to repeal Obamacare

If Republicans want to try again to repeal the Affordable Care Act with just a simple majority, they only have until the end of September to do it.

Thats according to Sen. Bernie Sanders, the ranking member on the Senates budget committee. According to Sanders, the Senate parliamentarian declared Friday that the Senates 2017 budget resolution, which gave reconciliation instructions to repeal Obamacare, will expire at the end of the month.

That means that Republican senators will either have to pass a new budget to repeal health care with a simple majority or they will have to have 60 votes a filibuster-proof majority to make changes to Obamacare.

The parliamentarians office declined to comment to CNN, saying its policy was not to speak with the media. CNN has reached out to Republicans on the Senate budget committee about whether they agree with Sanders assessment.

Todays determination by the Senate parliamentarian is a major victory for the American people and everyone who fought against President Trumps attempt to take away health care from up to 32 million people, Sanders said in a statement. Now that the parliamentarian has determined that Senate Republicans cannot use reconciliation instructions to repeal the Affordable Care Act beyond this fiscal year, we need to work together to expand, not cut, health care for millions of Americans who desperately need it.

CNNs Manu Raju and Ted Barrett contributed to this report.

Don’t Miss: How Do Republicans Really Feel About Trump

Trumps Promise To Repeal Obamacare Is Now In Limbo

President Donald Trump expressed disappointment after Republican lawmakers’ failure to muster enough votes to repeal Obamacare placed one of his loftiest campaign promises in limbo.

A series of defections by Senate Republicans scuttled two separate efforts to dismantle the sweeping U.S. health care law put in place by Trump’s predecessor, President Barack Obama.

“We’ve had a lot of victories, but we haven’t had a victory on health care,” Trump told reporters July 18, as it became clear the latest Republican legislative efforts would fail. “We’re disappointed.”

A slim margin of error constrained GOP efforts to repeal and replace Obamacare and forced a delicate balancing act between the party’s conservative and moderate members.

But defections by Sens. Jerry Moran of Kansas and Mike Lee of Utah on July 17 brought to four the number of Republican senators to publicly oppose the bill , effectively killing the repeal-and-replace plan. Senate leadership could only afford to lose two Republican votes for passage.

Senate Republicans then turned their attention to a measure that would repeal major parts of Obamacare over two years, in theory buying lawmakers enough time to agree on a replacement plan before the Affordable Care Act, often called Obamacare, was largely dismantled.

“I did not come to Washington to hurt people,” Capito said in a statement. “I cannot vote to repeal Obamacare without a replacement plan that addresses my concerns and the needs of West Virginians.”

Gop Aims To Kill Obamacare Yet Again After Failing 70 Times

Chris Riotta U.S.Donald TrumpAffordable Care ActObamacare

The GOP may be down for the count in it’s failed attempts to repeal and replace former President Barack Obama’s Affordable Care Actbut don’t count Lindsey Graham out just yet.

President Donald Trump met with the South Carolina senator and one of his fiercest critics in the Republican party on Friday night to discuss a bill that would effectively block Obamacare funding, according to two sources familiar with the meeting and legislation currently being drafted. Republican officials tell Politico Graham’s bill could potentially reach 50 votes after a series of failed attempts in recent weeks to both repeal and replace, then simply repeal, Obama’s landmark health care initiative.

After last week’s latest attempt to remove provisions of Obamacare ended with Sen. John McCain’s dramatic “no” vote effectively keeping it alive along with two other senators, Newsweek has found at least 70 Republican-led attempts to repeal, modify or otherwise curb the Affordable Care Act since its inception as law on March 23, 2010.

“I had a great meeting with the President and know he remains fully committed to repealing and replacing Obamacare,” Graham said in a statement Friday night. “President Trump was optimistic about the Graham-Cassidy-Heller proposal. I will continue to work with President Trump and his team to move the idea forward.”

How many more times that may take, is anyone’s guess.

Also Check: Which Republicans Voted To Impeach Trump Today

Dylan Scott guides you through the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic and the health care policies that matter most.

Analysts expect the bill would lead to millions of Americans losing coverage, similar to previous Republican repeal bills. Republicans might not even know the full extent of the new bills effects on the health care system because they are likely to vote on the bill before the Congressional Budget Office can release its full analysis. The CBO is rushing to at least a provide a bare-bones analysis by early next week. The Senate has now scheduled two hearings for Monday and Tuesday on the bill.

Senate Republicans need 50 votes to pass this bill, meaning only two Republicans can defect. As my colleague Dylan Scott has pointed out, Republicans always have 45 or so votes to repeal Obamacare. Its the last five that are the battleground.

Several senators who opposed the last Obamacare repeal effort havent taken an official position yet. So the vote could fail just like past Republican attempts. But all signs we have from Capitol Hill suggest that it could pass. Cassidy is actively working to persuade senators to vote for the bill and reaching out to governors, too, to pressure their senators.

Ive had governors calling up their senators, 14 or 15 governors, saying you need to get on this, Cassidy told reporters at a Friday morning briefing.

Gop Health Care Bill Would Cut About $765 Billion In Taxes Over 10 Years

But sentiment has changed on Obamacare, with Gallup Poll finding this month that 55 percent now approve of the ACA.

The AHCA faces a much tougher road in the Senate, and if it dies there, some of those vulnerable GOP members may have made what ends up being a futile vote.

But there’s another side to consider, too. For Republicans who have made the refrain “repeal and replace Obamacare” their mantra for seven years now, not acting on their signature campaign promise could risk depleting enthusiasm among their core voters, who they also need to turn out in November 2018 to combat a Democratic base that is energized against President Trump.

And after the first attempt at repeal failed in an embarrassing fashion, House Republicans and Trump badly needed a win. That’s why they took a victory lap in the White House Rose Garden on Thursday afternoon, even though the bill is far from becoming law.

“The American people expected us to deliver on the promises we’ve made and that’s what House Republicans have just done,” National Republican Congressional Committee communications director Matt Gorman wrote in a memo after the vote.

Republicans have pointed out that more insurance companies are pulling out of state-run exchanges, and the GOP bill will cut about $765 billion in taxes over the next decade, NPR’s Scott Horsley reported, though mostly for wealthy Americans.

Thank you @RepMimiWalters and for standing in front!

Meredith Kelly May 4, 2017

Read Also: Are There More Democrats Or Republicans In The Us

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surveysbygracelynn · 4 years ago

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1) How are you doing in this time of COVID19? Do you personally know anyone who is not taking COVID19 seriously? I’m probably doing better than most, honestly. I don’t mind working from home, or not seeing people often. But I’m also a lot busier than normal. One of my friends still goes out a lot, but I don’t see him much. I think even my trump supporting family takes the restrictions serious to an extent.

2) What do you think of TikTok? Have you jumped on it yet? Why or why not? Tik Tok is great. I joined when it was about to be banned. I’m so glad I did because a lot of the content is great.

3) What game have you gone back to playing or missed playing because of this time of self-quarantining? Like everyone else I’m now on animal crossing most of the time. But I haven’t had a lot of time to play. My island is not pretty or thought out.

4) How internet-savvy are your parents? Can you think of time(s) when they surprised you with what they know (i.e. memes, platforms, emoji uses, etc.)? My parents are like good and not good. They know enough. It was kind of sweet when they hopped on the national daughters day trend this year because neither of them post much (when they did, it was me posting a caption for them lol)

5) What is your favorite foreign cuisine? What is your favorite food/dish from that cuisine? I love Italian and Mexican. I could probably eat both of those all the time. Italian, I love eggplant parm. Mexican, I love quesadillas.

6) What is an electronic gadget that you’ve had for more than 5 years? Would you say it was worth your money? Do you plan on replacing it any time soon? Hmm. That’s a good question. My laptop I think is about 5 years old now. I don’t think I bought it though. I might replace it eventually because it crashes a lot.

7) What TV show would you say you’ve re-watched more than two times? Are you re-watching anything now? Probably Full House and Friends in advertently. I’m not one to go back and watch a show multiple times as a series.

8) Do you remember the moment when you started feeling alarmed by the development of the COVID19? How did your life change since? I think I started actually taking it serious in the end of March. A lot of stuff was happening amidst the friend group, people were still coming to my apartment every day and I could not handle it.

9) What viral video/meme last made you furious or annoyed? Probably something a Republican posted lol

10) When was the last time you woke up feeling pumped and determined to have a great day? How did that day unfold for you? Uhmm.. I don’t know. lately I kinda just wake up cranky if I’m up too early or cranky if I’m up later than I have time to kind of chill by myself.

11) Do you use e-mail a lot at work? If so, what are your biggest e-mail pet peeves? If not, what mundane task do you do on a regular basis at work and what do you dislike about it? Yes, email is probably most of my job right now, as the phone calls have slowed down. I don’t really have any pet peeves about emails. It’s kind of annoying when people cc my boss on a random email to me but I don’t really get too worked up about it. I guess what would be my pet peeves is that most of my coworkers don’t read my emails when I send them.

12) What hobby or interest of your significant other do you have ZERO interest in? What about something you actually think might be fun or something you actually picked up thanks to them? If you don’t have an SO, you can think of a relative or friend as an example instead. Brandon has a lot of interests. games and anime are cool, but I can’t get into them as serious as he is. I guess I have zero interest in cooking which is kind of terrible to say. I would guess anime is something I picked up thanks to him. I played video games before.

13) Do you use Uber? If so, how often do you use it or cabs in general? Have you ever had an awkward moment with a cab driver? Only in emergencies or dire situations really. When I took it last month as to not get on the city bus coming home, there were a few. One guy was taking an awkward way back. And one guy had a car that you wouldn’t think was an Uber..

14) If you are employed, what would you say are the best and worst parts of your company’s culture. If you don’t work, what would you say is the busiest part of your day? The best part is the flexibility with things. Like, I could take a long lunch and it not be a problem. The worst part is trying to keep boundaries.

15) What was the last craving you fulfilled? That’s a good question. I haven’t really had many cravings lately but some of them I don’t find reason to fufill. I think the other day I was trying to recreate the subway sandwich but then we didn’t have cheddar. The one that really sticks out is when Brandon made us breakfast sandwiches before we went to the Beach.

16) Do you like stand-up comedy? Who are your favorites? When was the last time you remember discovering someone new that you actually liked? John Mulaney is probably my favorite. Hmm. That’s another good question... It probably honestly was John Mulaney.

17) Have you ever felt affected by the death of a celebrity or public figure? If so, who? Do you remember when you found out and what was your reaction to it? Not really, honestly. I mean I awlways cry when there’s like a memoriam tribute but no one really made me super sad.

18) What positive affirmation do you need to give yourself right now? My boundaries are necessary and are an act of self love..

19) How often do you get headaches? What are usually the cause(s)? What are your go-to remedies for it? What was the worst headache you’ve ever had? Lately it’s been a lot more. And then I get scared its COVID. but I usually try to power through them or take advil. I got migraines in high school but I really don’t remember much. I think I was still dating my first boyfriend at the time.

20) What was the last purchase you regret making? What about it that made it regrettable? How about the last purchase that you found absolutely worth your buck? I guess I sort of regret getting two types of light bulbs at the store. or this reeses ice cream which kinda sucked actually. The most worthwhile purchase as of late I think has been the reusable k cup. I use it like every day.

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itsfinancethings · 5 years ago

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New story in Politics from Time: Revenge of the Never Trumpers: Meet the Republican Dissidents Fighting to Push Donald Trump Out of Office

Jack Spielman has been a Republican his whole life. But over the past four years, he has come to two realizations.

Increasingly upset by President Donald Trump’s “appalling” behavior, his cozy relationships with dictators and the ballooning national debt, Spielman says his first epiphany was that he couldn’t cast a ballot for Trump again. But for the retired Army cybersecurity engineer, the final straw was the President’s retaliation against impeachment witness Lieut. Colonel Alexander Vindman, who retired in July after Trump fired him from the National Security Council in February. Spielman decided he had to do more than just vote for presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden; he had to persuade others to do the same. So Spielman filmed a video for a group called Republican Voters Against Trump (RVAT), explaining his views. “I want to do some part,” Spielman tells TIME, “to try to correct the wrong that I did in voting for this man.”

RVAT, which launched in May, is among a growing number of Republicanled groups dedicated to making Trump a one-term President. Since December, longtime GOP operatives and officials have formed at least five political committees designed to urge disaffected conservatives to vote for Biden. The best known of these groups, the Lincoln Project, has since forming late last year gained national attention for its slick advertisements trolling the President. Right Side PAC, led by the former chair of the Ohio Republican Party, launched in late June; a few days after that, more than 200 alumni of George W. Bush’s Administration banded together to form an organization called 43 Alumni for Biden. There’s also the Bravery Project, led by former GOP Congressman and erstwhile Trump primary challenger Joe Walsh. And plans are in the works for a group of former national-security officials from Republican administrations to endorse Biden this summer.

Since 2015, pockets of the party have bemoaned Trump’s Twitter antics, his divisive rhetoric and key elements of his platform, from the Muslim travel ban to his trade tariffs to his family-separation policy at the U.S.-Mexico border. But with the President’s approval rating in the party consistently around 90%, and GOP lawmakers terrified to cross him, the so-called Never Trump faction has proven largely powerless, with a negligible impact on federal policy.

Now, in the final stretch of the President’s term, the Never Trumpers could finally have their revenge. Four years ago, Trump won the Electoral College by some 77,000 votes scattered across Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. If even a small slice of disillusioned Trump voters or right-leaning independents defect to Biden in November, it could be enough to kick Trump out of office. “They are the constituency that can swing this election,” says Sarah Longwell, a longtime Republican operative and founder of RVAT.

This constituency now appears more willing to vote for Biden than they were six months ago, in no small part because of Trump’s faltering response to the corona-virus, which has killed more than 140,000 Americans and ravaged the economy. Between March and June, according to a Pew Research poll, Trump’s approval rating among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters dropped seven percentage points, to 78%. A June 25 New York Times/Siena College survey found that Biden has a 35-point lead over Trump among voters in battleground states who supported a third-party candidate in 2016. “Any small percentage of voters who no longer support him could be critical in closely matched swing states,” says Republican pollster Whit Ayres.

It’s too early to gauge how effective the raft of Never Trump groups will be. They’re dismissed by many Republicans as self-serving opportunists profiting off the polarization Trump has exacerbated. Trump also remains hugely popular among Republicans. “President Trump is the leader of a united Republican Party where he has earned 94% of Republican votes during the primaries–something any former President of any party could only dream of,” says campaign spokes-woman Erin Perrine.

Even if the Never Trump activists are able to help oust the President, it’s unclear what will become of a party that’s vastly different from the one they came up in. Trump has transformed today’s GOP into a cult of personality rooted in economic nationalism and racial division. And while the small anti-Trump faction wants to return to the conservative ideology that reigned for decades before Trump, many Republicans believe Trump has changed the party forever.

Sitting in front of a packed book-case, Rick Wilson looked surprised as he peered over hornrimmed spectacles at an overflowing screen: “There’s 10,000 people on here,” the onetime Republican operative marveled of the Zoom audience assembled for the Lincoln Project’s first town hall on July 9.

Grant Lancaster—AM New YorkThe Lincoln Project’s ads criticizing the President’s performance have helped it raise nearly $20 million

Wilson formed the Lincoln Project in December, along with lawyer George Conway, the husband of Trump’s senior adviser Kellyanne Conway, and veteran political strategists Steve Schmidt and John Weaver, among others. The Republican stalwarts had grown disgusted with the President’s behavior and their party’s acquiescence to it. The launch met little fanfare, but in the months since, the group has demonstrated a knack for quickly producing memorable videos and advertisements that get under Trump’s skin. In early May, with the unemployment rate soaring toward 15%, the group released an ad dubbed “Mourning in America,” a play on the upbeat Ronald Reagan classic, which depicted the woes of sick and unemployed Americans under Trump’s leadership. “If we have another four years like this,” the ad’s narrator intones as dead patients are wheeled out of hospitals on stretchers, “will there even be an America?” The President took notice. “Their so-called Lincoln Project is a disgrace to Honest Abe!” Trump tweeted. “I don’t know what Kellyanne did to her deranged loser of a husband, Moonface, but it must have been really bad.”

Irritating the President is part of the point. “It’s not trolling if you get a fish in the line,” says Reed Galen, a veteran of George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns and one of the project’s co-founders. “We kept dropping a hook in the water, and eventually the President bit.” The attention has been a boon to the group’s finances. The Lincoln Project raised nearly $17 million between April 1 and June 30.

If the Lincoln Project tries to needle the President, other groups in the Never Trump ecosystem have found complementary roles. Instead of using polished editing and ominous music to make a splash online, RVAT has gathered more than 400 testimonials from disheartened Republicans like Spielman. “I did only vote for Donald Trump because I couldn’t believe someone who acted as goofy as he did on TV actually meant it,” Monica, a self-described evangelical Christian from Texas, says in one video. “Since that time, I have been riddled with guilt.”

Longwell, RVAT’s founder, believes hearing from people like Monica will show waffling conservatives that they’re not alone in their dislike of the President, and encourage them to break away. “The thing that people trusted wasn’t elites, it wasn’t Republican elites, it certainly wasn’t the media,” Longwell says of her focus-group research. “But they did trust people like them.” The group says it plans to showcase those voices in an eight-figure ad campaign in five swing states before Election Day.

RVAT identified recalcitrant Republicans through email lists Longwell had built at Defending Democracy Together, its parent organization. Founded in 2019, Defending Democracy Together created online petitions whose signatories often offered clues of their disillusionment with Trump. Petitions supporting Vindman and thanking Utah Senator Mitt Romney for voting to convict Trump of abuse of power during the impeachment trial proved especially fruitful in finding former Trump supporters, according to Tim Miller, RVAT’s political director and a veteran Republican communications strategist.

To test new video messages, Longwell held a Zoom focus group on July 15 with seven Florida voters and allowed TIME to watch. Each participant voted for Trump in 2016 but was now dissatisfied with his leadership. Several mentioned his handling of COVID-19 in the meeting, noting Florida’s dramatic spike in cases. Long-well showed the group a few of RVAT’s testimonials. “It resonates with me,” one woman who works in the travel industry in Orlando said. “It does make me feel less alone.” But while three people on the call said they’d likely vote for Biden, two said they were unsure and two said they would still vote for Trump again. “I don’t think there’s any hope for him,” the Orlando woman said. “But I don’t see Biden doing a good job either.”

Matt Borges of Right Side PAC recognizes that Republican voters’ uncertainty about Biden needs to be addressed. As the former chair of the Ohio Republican Party watched Never Trump groups roll out advertisements, he worried there was too much focus on why Trump was bad and not enough on why Biden was a good alternative. “We need these people who know they are not [going to] vote for Trump but are not sold on Joe Biden to hear some messaging from fellow Republicans that says, ‘No, it’s O.K. to vote for this guy,'” says Borges, a lifelong Republican who disavowed Trump three years ago. In an unrelated development, Borges was arrested on July 21 for allegedly participating in a $60 million bribery scheme involving top political officials that the U.S. Attorney for the Southern District of Ohio decried as the biggest money-laundering effort in the state’s history.

In June, Borges teamed up with former Trump communications director Anthony Scaramucci to form Right Side PAC, which plans to spend up to $7 million targeting these voters through mailings, digital ads and phone banks. Their first focus is Michigan, where Borges commissioned a pollster to conduct research on Republican voters in swing districts. After spending more than a week in the field, the pollster delivered the results to Borges and Scaramucci on a Zoom call, which TIME observed. Support for Trump among Republican voters in Michigan’s Eighth Congressional District had dropped from 80% in January to 67%, the pollster said. The district had swung for Trump in 2016, then voted for a Democratic Congresswoman, Elissa Slotkin, two years later. Voters who ranked the coronavirus as their top concern were seen as more likely to break for Biden. While the group had planned to target all white Republican women over the age of 50 in Michigan, the pollster said the data suggested those over 65 were immovable in their support for Trump. These insights, Borges says, will form the basis of Right Side PAC’s “final sale” to voters on Biden’s behalf.

As the presidential race heads into its final months, another group of Republicans aims to help Biden in a different way. A group of more than 70 former national-security officials from GOP administrations, led by John Bellinger, the senior National Security Council and State Department lawyer under George W. Bush, and Ken Wainstein, Bush’s Homeland Security Adviser, plans to endorse Biden and publish a mission statement describing the damage they say Trump has done to America’s national security and global reputation. They will also fund-raise for the former Vice President and do media appearances in battleground states when the group launches later this summer. Some of the same people wrote an open letter denouncing Trump in 2016. But, says Wainstein, “our effort this time is going to have some staying power throughout the campaign.”

How much impact these groups will ultimately have on voters remains unclear. As they try to unseat an incumbent with a massive war chest, their first hurdle is money. Right Side PAC raised just over $124,000 in the first two weeks, disclosure filings show. The bulk of that haul came from one person, New York venture capitalist Peter Kellner, a long-time Republican donor who began giving to Democrats in 2018 and who has forked over the maximum amount to Biden’s campaign, according to Federal Election Commission filings. The group’s prospects were also clouded by Borges’ July 21 arrest. Borges did not respond to requests for comment.

43 Alumni for Biden, the group of former George W. Bush officials, announced its formation on July 1, which means it doesn’t have to file disclosure reports until October; had it announced a day earlier, it would have had to publicize its finances in mid-July. A member of the group declined to provide specific figures but said it had received contributions from more than 500 individuals. The Bravery Project officially launches July 23, and a representative declined to provide any fundraising figures.

Longwell tells TIME that RVAT has raised $13 million this year. As a 501(c)4, or political nonprofit, the group does not need to disclose its donors or exact figures. But the number she provides puts the group on par with the Lincoln Project, whose biggest donors are primarily prominent Democrats. While disclosure filings show that nearly half of the Lincoln Project’s donations were “unitemized” or under $200, it raked in $1 million from billionaire hedge-fund manager Stephen Mandel and $100,000 apiece from business mogul David Geffen and Joshua Bekenstein, the co-chairman of Bain Capital.

This influx of cash has enabled the Lincoln Project to ramp up advertisements against vulnerable Republican Senators like Susan Collins of Maine, Cory Gardner of Colorado and Steve Daines of Montana. “We made it very clear that this is not just about Trump but Trumpism and its enablers,” says Galen. “The Republican Senators we have held to account are the President’s greatest enablers.”

The strategy of going after Senators has provoked the ire of many Republicans, who say the group is prioritizing profit over party. “It’s purely grifting and making a name for themselves. It’s not based on principle at all,” says Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who worked for Jeb Bush’s and Romney’s presidential campaigns. The Lincoln Project, he says, “is essentially meant for raising money off the resistance and lining their own pockets.”

The group’s finances have also raised some eyebrows among government watchdogs. Two consulting firms, one run by Galen and another by co-founder Ron Steslow, received nearly a quarter of the $8.6 million the group spent between January and July. While other committees use similar methods, it is “not at all standard,” says Sheila Krumholz, executive director at the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. “It raises red flags about whether the operation is taking advantage of a situation where donors are giving to what they think is supporting one effort, but there are other patterns at play.”

Krumholz notes that the Lincoln Project does not publicly disclose all of the vendors who have done work for them, which suggests they are funneling money to organizations that then hire subcontractors. This method is not unheard-of, but the lack of transparency makes it difficult to discern who is ultimately profiting. “The public doesn’t know the extent to which Lincoln Project operatives may be profiting, or if they’re profiting at all,” Krumholz says. When asked about the group’s finances, Galen says, “We abide by all reporting requirements laid down by the FEC. No one at the Lincoln Project is buying a Ferrari.”

For now, the Never Trump Republicans say they aren’t looking beyond November. “We’re all in a grand alliance to beat a very big threat,” says Miller of RVAT. “We’ll see how the chips fall after.” But regardless of the election’s outcome, Miller and his cohorts face challenges ahead. They will either be failed rebels, cast out by a party taken over by its two-term President, or facing down a Biden Administration, which would bring unwelcome liberal policies and perhaps Supreme Court vacancies.

If Biden wins, Trumpism won’t disappear with Trump. The President’s rapid rise revealed the extent to which many of the ideological pillars of modern conservatism–its zeal for unfettered free markets, its devotion to deficit reduction, its attachment to global alliances, its faith in a muscular foreign policy–were out of step with actual Republican voters. Many of the ambitious lawmakers rising in the party, like Arkansas Senator Tom Cotton, have seen in Trump’s political success an example to emulate. The next generation of Republican leaders may try to replicate his policies without the self-defeating behavior.

It’s led many to wonder whether traditional conservatives will have a home in the GOP after Trump is gone. “There is a growing feeling that we need to burn the whole house down to purify the party of Trump enablers in the Congress,” says a former White House official in George W. Bush’s Administration. Some see the prospect of a rupture, with disaffected Republicans cleaving off and either forming a new party or making a tenuous peace with the moderate wing of the Democratic Party. “There’s a very real possibility … that the party will split,” says Richard Burt, former ambassador to Germany under President Reagan.

The modern Republican Party was always an uneasy alliance in some ways, with fiscal conservatives, religious conservatives and neoconservatives jostling for influence, and a white working-class base voting for policies that often favored the wealthy. Steven Teles, co-author of Never Trump: The Revolt of the Conservative Elites, envisions a Republican Party in which Trumpism dominates but the dissenters make up a vocal resistance faction. “I don’t think anyone is going to have control of the Republican Party the way we’ve seen in the past,” he says.

The irony of the Never Trumper activists is that while they are encouraging Republicans to vote Democratic for the first time in their lives, that is bringing some Republicans back into the party by creating a community of the disaffected. Spielman, the retired Army cybersecurity engineer, had become so disenchanted with Trump that he turned his back on the party altogether, voting for Democrats in Michigan’s 2020 primaries. But the Never Trump groups are “giving me hope that there are still some people out there with some decency that want to go back and save the party,” Spielman says. “It’s allowed me to come back and say, Yeah, I’m a Republican. I’m not leaving the party, but I want to fight for what’s right for the party.”

With reporting by Leslie Dickstein, Mariah Espada, and Josh Rosenberg

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brajeshupadhyay · 5 years ago

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Sure, Voters Think Trump Is Incompetent – But Most Voters Thought That In 2016, Too

WASHINGTON — If Democrats seem worried that Donald Trump will win another term in the White House even though most voters believe he is incompetent, it’s because they’ve seen this exact movie before – four years ago.

That fear has shown up in polls for the past year, with voters indicating their desire to replace the president but their expectation that, somehow, he will win again anyway.

“Political PTSD,” said Steve Schale, the Democratic consultant who ran former President Barack Obama’s successful Florida operation in 2008 and now works for a super PAC supporting Joe Biden.

“Dems are totally snake-bit. Too many are convinced the evil one is going to pull it out again,” said Joe Walsh, a former Republican congressman who unsuccessfully ran against Trump for the 2020 nomination. “It’s understandable, but they’re wrong.”

That anxiety was addressed directly in a new poll in Pennsylvania Wednesday that shows that voters generally, but Democrats particularly, now believe there is a “secret” vote for Trump that polls are missing, leading to a 46-45 split among voters asked whether Trump or Biden would win the state. The same poll, meanwhile, finds Biden with a 13-point lead, 53-40.

“The media consistently reports that Biden is in the lead, but voters remember what happened in 2016. The specter of a secret Trump vote looms large in 2020,” said Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute.

Indeed, candidate Trump was every bit as unpopular heading into the 2016 election as President Trump is today. A full 63% of voters casting ballots thought he did not have the temperament to be president; 64% did not think he was honest or trustworthy.

About that same figure, 61%, did not think he was qualified to serve as president – and yet 17% of that group voted for him anyway. The numbers were nearly the same in key swing states where he narrowly won, meaning that Trump’s margin of victory – 77,744 votes across Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan – was provided by Americans who did not think him qualified to do the job.

“There were two choices,” said Anthony Scaramucci, a financier who backed Trump in 2016, briefly worked in his White House, but now opposes him. “I am a Republican. I went with the GOP choice and tried to be supportive.”

In 2016, the matter of Trump’s competence and whether it would impact America was speculative. We have a record now about how it has ― 138,000 dead. Amanda Carpenter, former top aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)

That Trump benefited from 2016 Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s own unpopularity is clear. She was nearly as disliked as Trump, but voters gave Trump the benefit of the doubt when choosing between them.

Nationally, 47% of voters thought she was not qualified. But among those, 88% voted for Trump and only 5% percent for Clinton.

Of the 15% who thought neither was qualified, 66% voted for Trump and only 15% for Clinton. That four-to-one break carried across the key swing states, except in Florida, where it was 81% for Trump and 11% for Clinton.

Amanda Carpenter, a former top aide to Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), said while some of that may have been sexism, it was more about Trump being fresh to politics.

“It was a change election and she wasn’t change,” Carpenter said, adding that voters’ views of Trump’s fitness for the job today will be much harder for him to overcome.

“In 2016, the matter of Trump’s competence and whether it would impact America was speculative. We have a record now about how it has ― 138,000 dead,” she said. “Schools shut down across America. Families who can’t see each other. Millions of people forced out of work. All because he incompetently denied the threat, existence, and deadliness of the virus.”

Contributing to Clinton’s unexpected loss may have been that so many Americans expected her to win. A CBS News poll released the day before the 2016 election found that 55% of voters believed Clinton would win, compared to just 31% who thought Trump would.

That general assumption, political strategists believe, likely helped depress turnout among her lukewarm supporters — and led some to cast ballots for third-party candidates or even Trump himself as a protest vote.

That is not going to happen this time around, Trump’s critics, both Democrats and Republicans, agree.

Sarah Longwell, a Republican consultant who publishes the anti-Trump website “The Bulwark,” said Trump’s mishandling of the pandemic is likely to cost him some of his own supporters.

“People are experiencing the personal consequences of his incompetence. It’s not as fun to own the libs when you can’t own a house or car because Trump’s mismanagement of the pandemic is killing the economy,” she said.

For months, the Trump campaign has tried to turn the focus away from Trump’s management of the pandemic and onto Biden. “Doubts about Joe Biden’s competency are raised every time he speaks,” top aide Jason Miller said.

Trump himself, meanwhile, is actively selling the notion of a “secret Trump vote,” citing as an example the parades of boaters displaying Trump 2020 flags in Florida. He said his supporters frequently prefer not to take questions from pollsters.

“I think a lot of people don’t want to talk about it. I think they’re not going to say, ‘Hey, I’m for Trump. I’m for Trump.’ They don’t want to go through the process,” he said Tuesday during an hour-long Rose Garden campaign speech. “I think you have a silent majority the likes of which this country has never seen before.”

Democrats, for their part, say they are fine with their voters remaining nervous about the possibility of Trump winning again.

“Of course Democrats are scarred by the 2016 experience. This is a good thing though,” said Josh Schwerin, with the Priorities USA Action super PAC. “Trump might be in a tailspin but we need to ignore the polls and treat this like the close race it very likely will be in November. The best way to lose is by taking the race for granted, so having a fear of unexpected failure is very healthy and productive.”

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baoanhwin · 5 years ago

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Trumpity Trump: Why Betting on Biden is the right strategy

The more I think about the US election, the more I think we’re underweighting the edge scenarios. And of the edge scenarios, I think the one we’re underweighting most is the one where the Democrats have a really good night.

Why?

Well, let’s start with the obvious. President Trump won by the narrowest of margins in 2016. To demonstrate this, let’s play “spin the wheel”. What we’re going to do is run a little simulation with every state in 2016. We’re going to end up with the same final vote shares – 48.2% vs 46.1% – but we’re going to shake things up very slightly in every state. We’re going to apply a random number between -2.5% and +2.5% to the Democrat, and then do the inverse to the Republicans. Our end vote total – for the country as a whole – will remain the same, but we’re just going to randomly change the votes (just a little) in each state. And we’ll run that, say, 10,000 times.

What happens?

Well, the chart shows the frequency of various outcomes in terms of Republican electoral votes (remember kids, 269 to win!).

What’s amazing is that Trump’s 2016 result (304 electoral votes) is on the far right hand side of this probability distribution. Do a little random shaking of the tin, and he loses EVs.

Now, you might think that President Trump’s victory was the result of electoral genius and Brad Parscale. Yeah, that played a role. But so did dumb luck. The votes could hardly have been any more optimally distributed.

The point I’m making is that in 2020, President Trump doesn’t have a lot to play with. Obama could go backwards a bit in 2012, and still be President. Trump doesn’t have that luxury.

His path was narrow before, and is probably narrower now.

So, here’s my three pointer on why I think President Trump might get hammered in 2020.

1. Trump is (significantly) less popular now than in 2016. And one group in particular has really deserted him – white women. According to Pew, Trump won this group by two points in 2016. The opinion polls now show him trailing here by ten points.

Now, some will say “hey, Trump’s unpopular, but so’s Biden”. Well, that’s partly true. But on forced choice between those people who say they dislike both candidates, 49% to 17% say they’ll chose Biden. Ouch.

2. Many Democrats didn’t come out to vote in 2016. There was a general sense of inevitability about Trump losing, and a lot of people didn’t particularly like Ms Clinton. That depressed Democratic turnout. And this feeds through into the 2020 polls: there is strict turnout weighting in the US, and this means lots of 2012 Obama backers, who didn’t vote in 2016, are not being counted.

3. President Trump is now suffering from a bit of an enthusiasm gap himself. Evangelicals used to give Mr Trump 81% favourability ratings, that’s now 61%, a 20 point drop. His drop among religious Catholics is even larger: a 27 point fall between March and May of this year. Now, I’m not suggesting that the deeply conservative and religious suddenly come out and vote Biden. I’m suggesting some of them (and it only takes a few) stay at home on election day.

Put these all together, and what do you have? I think you have the potential for Biden to win by eight to ten points this time around. Yes, yes, I know the last five or six Presidential contests have been really close. But I’m wondering if this time we could see a blow out result.

Nothing is certain, of course. Trump could pull this out the bag. But my gut says he had a winning coalition in 2016 because he managed to combine economic nationalism, a terrible opponent, and a bit of good fortune (the FBI discvovering a bunch of emails – which turned out to be nothing – a week before voting). The ultimate issue here is that Trump – to win – cannot allow his voter base to shrink. And he has done nothing to appeal to people beyond his base to win. The same people, all of them, need to come out in 2020 for him to win – and even that may not be enough, if the Democrats are more motivated.

Let me leave you with one statistic. Right track / wrong track questions tend to have pretty good predictive power. When people think the country is on the right track, they tend to re-elect incumbents. When they think it is on the wrong track, they are more likely to roll the dice.

Right track / wrong track is now at -38%. That is the lowest number of Trump’s Presidency. Now, it may be that he is able to feed off that. He’s the man who can put the country on the right track… But I think it more likely that the voters choose to say “Adieu Mr President”.

Robert Smithson

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kyidyl · 7 years ago

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Year in Review

Eh, I’m bored, so I’m stealing this from @md-admissions

2017 in Review

By tradition, it’s time for my annual review!

1 - What did you do in 2017 that you’d never done before?

Had heart surgery, lived with my little sister for a bit (not technically never, but I moved out when she was 2.). 2 - Did you keep your new years’ resolutions, and will you make more for next year?

I don’t make New Year’s resolutions. If I want to do stuff, I just do it, I tend not to wait for the new year.

3 - Did anyone close to you give birth?

Yeah, weirdly. My sister, about two-ish weeks ago. Different sister than the above. The sister that gave birth is 31, not 18.

4 - Did anyone close to you die?

No, thankfully. My dad has a giant blood clot in his calf tho and confronting his mortality has been unpleasant.

5 - What countries did you visit?

Italy - Venice and Rome.

6 - What would you like to have in 2018 that you lacked in 2017?

More time to do the things I really care about. Hopefully I’ll be able to quit my job soon. 7 - What date from 2017 will remain etched upon your memory, and why?

12/12/17 - My niece was born.

8 - What was your biggest achievement of the year?

Completing my first real research paper. I spent the whole semester working on it.

9 - What was your biggest failure?

I honestly have no idea. Probably not being able to stick to a low sodium diet as well as I like (My Dr. is worried about my blood pressure.). Everything in the US is preserved and full of salt. If I stuck to it I’d never eat out or have anything besides unflavored chicken. IDK I do pretty good for breakfast and lunch but I just don’t have the knowledge to cook low sodium dinners for myself. 10 - Did you suffer illness or injury?

I haven’t been like...sick with anything or had a cold or whatever, but I did have a heart ablation to correct arrhythmia. 11 - What was the best thing you bought?

I have no idea...all my best purchases were made at the end of last year, lol. And the answer to that is: a canon 80D. I haven’t bought anything major this year. 12 - Whose behavior merited celebration?

Very few people, that’s for damned sure. I’m gonna say Beyonce just because I <3 her and don’t feel like giving a deep answer here. Oh! All of the private citizens who donated to disaster relief funds for the various terrible things that happened this year. 13 - Whose behavior made you appalled or depressed?

Trump. Every elected republican except for that five minutes where McCain was like “fuck you guys”. They’re all a bunch of schysters. And while we’re at it, Kim Jon un is a dick too. All the white people who were like “yeah, the KKK has a point”. Can I say Trump again? Cause he really is that bad.

14 - Where did most of your money go?

Living expenses, same as usual, the rent is too damned high.

15 - What did you get really, really, really excited about?

I can’t think of much. Going to faire with @wut4 was pretty great. My sister’s baby, too. Oh, and Game of Thrones because that’s the kind of sad fan that I am, lol. 16 - What song(s) will always remind you of 2017?

*sighs in @existing-oddball’s direction* Despacito. 17 - Compared to this time last year, are you: I. Happier or sadder?

Sadder. Definitely, sadder. II. Thinner or fatter?

Same. Maybe a little fatter? My weight doesn’t fluctuate that much.

III. Richer or poorer?

Poorer, but I received an inheritance last year and I’ve spent a decent chunk of it. Tuition and heart surgery are expensive ya’ll.

18 - What do you wish you’d done more of?

Literally anything but my job. It’s really been grinding me down. I don’t get a new one because I get a lot of vacation time, they work around my class schedule, and my boss is great. My company is not bad either, I just dislike the actual work. And I wish I’d been more involved with various protesting things. Wish I’d gone to the women’s march. 19 - What do you wish you’d done less of?

Work. I don’t like my job. Procrastinate, cause it stresses me out, but I seem unable to help myself. 20 - How will you be spending/spent christmas?

Went up to DC to see my family and it didn’t suck. :)

21 - Did you fall in love in 2017?

Nah, not romantically. My niece is pretty great tho even though all she does is poop and sleep and cry occasionally. 22 - How many one-night stands?

Nada. 23 - What was your favorite tv program?

Game of Thrones.

24 - Do you hate anyone now that you didn’t hate this time last year?

Yes. Fuck Roy Moore. And I hate Trump more than I knew I could hate another person. 25 - What was the best book you read?

Lord, IDK. I just finished the Dunk and Egg novels and read the Princess and the Queen before that, but IDK if that’s the best. I read a lot of good Zombie fiction this year, and Jenny Trout put out another book this year. I <3 her. 26 - What was your greatest musical discovery?

IDK, Music isn’t really my thing. I wouldn’t call it a discovery, but P!nk put out a really excellent album a few months ago. 27 - What did you want and get?

Whatever I want. Hahahaha... 28 - What was your favorite film of this year?

Wonder Woman, or Kingman. I see a LOT of movies.

29 - What did you do on your birthday, and how old were you?

Ok actually I had a really shitty birthday this year. My BFF��s brother got married on 7/1 (my bday is 7/2), and we were in TX. It should have been fun but my BFF was getting run around town and she has a hard time saying no to family so basically I spent the whole day by myself farting around on the internet. Then the next day I had the worst migraine of the whole year, or maybe ever. So yeah, turning 37 blew. 30 - What one thing would have made your year immeasurably more satisfying?

Trump getting impeached and thrown in jail where that stupid motherfucker belongs.

31 - How would you describe your personal fashion concept in 2017?

Same as usual, whatever I feel like. Usually jeans and whatever shirt is clean.

32 - What kept you sane?

Am I sane? lol. Probably my sister while she was here. Having someone around and not being alone all the time was a nice relief from usual. 33 - Which celebrity/public figure did you fancy the most?

I’m gonna copy MD-A’s answer: Jason Mamoa. That man is fine AF.

34 - What political/social issue stirred you the most?

#metoo and the lack of response from the fed for PR. 35 - Who did you miss?

I miss Wut4 a lot, and most of my other friends. I don’t see them very often. I miss the people from my major at school that I’d made friends with who all graduated ahead of me. I’m the last one. 36 - Who was the best new person you met?

I didn’t meet anyone new that I’d say had a meaningful impact on my personal life, I think. But I didn’t know who Robert Mueller was before this and he’s got a lot of potential.

37 - Tell us a valuable life lesson you learned in 2017:

IDK, 2017 has felt like the year I’ve been stalled in place and can’t I just be done already and move on to the next stage of my life. It’s been full of frustrating monotony and I’m seriously chafing at the boredom. I have a hard time enjoying the moment in front of me, always have, so I guess what I’ve learned is that I’ve got to try and be better at appreciating things as they are.

#personal

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pieces-falling-from-me · 7 years ago

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all of them

Woman!• 1. List 5 things you want to do before the year ends. --- Get another piercing, successfully bake banana bread, read three more books...ummm and I’m not sure what else. The year is almost up!• • 2. What color are your pants? --- Dark destroyed jeans• • 3. Favorite motivational quote. --- “Have some fire. Be unstoppable. Be better than everyone else here and don’t give a damn what anybody else thinks.” (Cristina Yang)• • 4. When was the last time you drank coffee? --- Around 3pm today• • 5. What was the last thing you ate? -- A maple pumpkin muffin!• • 6. Favorite animal. --- Polar bears• • 7. Favorite song. -- Vienna, by Billy Joel or Time After Time by Cyndi Lauper• • 8. Last movie you watched? --- Wonder Woman• • 9. Any turn ons? --- Lots ;)...soft hair, people who smell good, ear kisses, nice collarbones, creative talent, brown eyes• • 10. Any turn offs? --- Also lots. Rudeness, cockiness, patriarchal bullshit, men who have chest hair• • 11. List 4 big words off of the top of your head. --- triskaidekophobia, ubiquitous, penultimate, pamplemousse • • 12. What are some meaningful movies? --- Music of the Heart, The Freedom Writers, Kedi• • 13. 2 most important people in your life right now? -- My wife and daughter :)• • 14. What are 3 things you want to do before the month ends? --- Start Christmas shopping, go hiking before it snows, pay bills lol• • 15. When was the last time you read a good book? --- Just finished one! I’m always reading.• • 16. How long do you study for usually, if you study? --- I was the worst at studying. Always super last minute.• • 17. Do you have any nicknames? -- A couple• • 18. Favorite kind of perfume? (fruity, alluring, etc.) --- Slightly sweet, slightly vanilla-y, slightly smoky• • 19. Do you have any international friends / friends who live out of state? --- Lots!• • 20. What is something unique that you do every single day? --- Umm...I honestly have no idea. • • 21. If there was a movie based on your life, what would it be called? --- “Gay Chaos”• • 22. When was the last time you bought a gift for someone? --- Just this weekend! I bought my wife a necklace. I mean, she picked it out, but it still counts.• • 23. Are you a shopaholic? --- I don’t think so. I do love shopping though when the mood strikes.• • 24. What are some songs that always make you feel better? -- Vienna, by Billy Joel, Time After Time, by Cyndi Lauper, and anything by the Barenaked Ladies• • 25. List 3 activities that you can only enjoy by yourself. --- I really can’t think of any. I pretty much like doing anything with my wife or kid :)• • 26. If you could live in any biome (and survive) which biome would you live in? --- Forest, or Tundra• • 27. How do you like being roused in the morning? --- ...let’s just say my FAVOURITE way is rated R ;)• • 28. How was your day? What did you do? --- It was ok! I went grocery shopping, baked some muffins, and did some casual job hunting while my daughter was at preschool• • 29. What did your last text message say? --- “I’ll eat your muffin.”• • 30. Do you respond to texts quickly? --- Usually right away, unless I literally can’t• • 31. Who was the last person you called? --- My wife• • 32. List 5 things that are on your wish list. --- Like, anything?? World peace, the end of climate change, gun control in America, a food processor, and a private jet• • 33. If you were famous, what do you think you would be famous for? --- Something music-related• • 34. Winter or summer? -- AUTUMN• • 35. What is a quality that all people should have? --- Kindness• • 36. If you could have a large collection of one item, what would that item be? --- Hmm....seaglass• • 37. What have you been thinking about lately? --- Whether or not I want to go back to work.• • 38. What is the secret to a happy life? --- Loving yourself• • 39. What are some phrases you say often? --- “That’s the worst.”, “For real.”• • 40. Favorite food? --- IMPOSSIBLE CHOICE! Lasagna and pie are right up there, though.• • 41. List 3 wishes. -- Didn’t I already do this?• • 42. What are some of your greatest fears? --- My loved ones getting sick or dying, fire, President Trump• • 43. What is the last thing you downloaded onto your computer? --- Season 2 of Wynonna Earp• • 44. Most beautiful thing you’ve ever seen (in real life)? --- She’s sitting right beside me.• • 45. Spicy food:Like or dislike? --- LOVE• • 46. Scary movies:Like or dislike? --- If I’m in the right mood.• • 47. Do you like to travel? --- Love it.• • 48. Any regrets? --- Not really, no. There’s no point in regrets.• • 49. Do you like rain? --- One of my fave things ever.• • 50. What do you spend most of your money on? --- Eating out, probably• • 51. Would you rather visit the past or the future? --- Hmmm. Past.• • 52. Favorite clothing store? --- Simon’s, Anthropologie, Old Navy/Gap, and a local store called Belle et Rebelle• • 53. What is the best advice you can give to those who are feeling down? --- It gets better. Truly.• • 54. How often do you think about your future? Does it scare you? --- All the time. It’s terrifying.• • 55. What angers you the most? --- Currently? The lack of gun control in America. And I’m not even American.• • 56. When was the last time you got majorly angry? --- See above.• • 57. When was the last time you got really sad? --- Also see above.• • 58. Are you good at lying? --- Haha no• • 59. What foreign language would you like to learn? --- I’m trying to learn Italian, currently! I’d also love to learn Spanish.• • 60. How many languages can you speak and what are they? --- English, French, and VERY basic Italian.• • 61. How often do you go to parties? If you don’t, what do you do instead? --- Not too much anymore, but usually once a month some friend has a gathering. Otherwise I mostly stay home, or go out with the wife or with the wife and kid.• • 62. What books do you plan to read this year? --- I never really plan ahead, I just pick up whatever seems interesting at the time.• • 63. Do you have breakfast every morning? --- Most mornings• • 64. Tell us a secret. --- Calzona will rise. Shh.• • 65. How many concerts have you been to? --- Too many to count• • 66. Last hug? --- Earlier this afternoon• • 67. Who knows you better than anyone else? --- My wife, hands down. Also my twin.• • 68. Baths or showers? --- Both! Showers for actual cleaning, baths for just...soaking.• • 69. Do you think you’re ambitious? --- Somewhat.• • 70. What song is stuck in your head? --- Taylor Swift’s new song, which I actually hate.• • 71. Countries you’ve visited? --- A lot• • 72. What do you most value in your friends? --- Their kindness and sense of humour• • 73. What helps you to sleep better? --- Valerian tea.• • 74. What is the most money you have ever held in your hand? --- Uhhh in my hand?? About 5 grand, I think.• • 75. What makes you nervous? --- Sharing my writing, making new friends• • 76. What is the best advice you’ve ever been given? --- “Being nervous is the same physical reaction as being excited. So you’re not nervous -- you’re excited.”• • 77. Is it easier to forgive or forget? --- Forgive• • 78. First mobile phone? --- First I ever bought myself that was truly mine? A little Motorola candy bar phone. It had a colour screen!• • 79. Strangest dream? --- I usually don’t remember them, actually!• • 80. Best dream? --- Probably something sexy...haha• • 81. Who is the smartest person you know? --- My wife• • 82. Who is the prettiest person on tumblr? --- @myfaerytale ;)• • 83. Do you miss anyone right now? --- Yeah• • 84. Who do you love? Why? --- I love my wife and daughter more than anything in this world.• • 85. Do you like sharing? --- Depends what I’m sharing ;)• • 86. What was the last picture you took with your phone? --- My daughter this afternoon with her hands full of pumpkin muffin dough• • 87. Is there a reason behind everything that happens? --- Yes, I think so• • 88. Favorite genre of music? --- Pretty much everything, honestly• • 89. If you had one word to describe yourself, what would it be? --- Laid-back• • 90. Describe your life in 5 words. --- Laid-back, loving, exciting, fun, happy• • 91. Describe the world in 4 words. --- Chaotic. That’s really the only word.• • 92. Craziest thing you’ve ever done? --- Ummm….a naked polar bear dip?• • 93. First three songs in your favorite playlist? --- I don’t have any premade playlists!• • 94. Are you more creative or logical? --- Creative• • 95. Would you rather lie or hurt someone with the truth? --- Truth• • 96. What are you most proud of? --- I’m raising a pretty great kid• • 97. What personality trait do you admire in other people? --- Kindness, laughter• • 98. When you imagine yourself as really, really relaxed and happy, what are you doing? --- Laying in the sun reading• • 99. How do you usually start a conversation? --- Hi?• • 100. What is the best news you could hear right now? --- That Trump and the entire Republican Party are gone.

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platonic-bellarke · 7 years ago

Note

Do all of the number asks

Wow ok 1: Full nameSarah Abigail Large 2: Age163: 3 FearsDrowning, being considered an annoying friend, being ignored 4: 3 things I loveMusic Frank iero Art5: 4 turns onTattoos Dark hair (on guys on girls anything)Blue eyes Being able to listen to me rant and talk about things I love 6: 4 turns offRepublicans Homophobic people Ignoring me Hypocrisy 7: My best friendShe goes to my school 8: Sexual orientationBisexual9: My best first dateI have never dated anyone lmao10: How tall am I5’4 and a half11: What do I missMy Chemical Romance and my best friend in elementary school and middle school 12: What time was I bornI think around 12:35 in the afternoon 13: Favourite colorAnything blue tbh (pretty much cool colors)14: Do I have a crushYes, I actually have 2 lmao here’s this girl and my school and this guy at this other school 15: Favourite quote“Sometimes you have to kind of die inside in order to rise from your own ashes and believe in yourself and love yourself and become a better person” or “All your quirks, all your problems-even your depressions and your failures-it what makes you, you” both by Gerard Way (or just “keep running” from danger days) 16: Favourite placeMy bed with my dog and cat listening to music 17: Favourite foodI love banana and grapes 18: Do I use sarcasmOccasionally 19: What am I listening to right nowThe white album by Weezer (specially the song L.A. girlz)20: First thing I notice in new personEither hair and facial features or, if I talk to them, their personality 21: Shoe sizeLike 8-9 (in US women’s)22: Eye colorLike blue, green, grayish 23: Hair colorbrown with some natural blonde highlights 24: Favourite style of clothingI love flannels and black jeans and beanies and hoodies (idk just like that aesthetic)25: Ever done a prank call?Yep27: Meaning behind my URLThe joke of bellarke being platonic and “platonic bellarke” being an oxymoron 28: Favourite moviePretty much any marvel movie (mcu) especially winter soldier or Ragnarok 29: Favourite songFamous last words, mama, the ghost of you, bulletproof heart, literally any thing by My Chemical Romance A Rush of Blood to the Head and Clocks by Coldplay Knights of Cydonia by Muse Jesus of Suburbia by Green Day Say it ain’t so and My Name is Jonas by Weezer Ode to sleep by Twenty One Pilots (I couldn’t narrow it down to one sorry)30: Favourite bandMy Chemical Romance (coldplay and Muse and close seconds)31: How I feel right nowAnxious (over nothing) tired, a little sad32: Someone I loveFrank iero, my best friend, my family 33: My current relationship statusSingle (hmu)34: My relationship with my parentsReally good 35: Favourite holidayHALLOWEEN 36: Tattoos and piercing i haveNone :(37: Tattoos and piercing i wantI want my ears and nose pierced. I want a My Chemical Romance, Coldplay, and muse tattoo (and many more)38: The reason I joined TumblrI made my first account in 2013 because my friends had tumblr and I want to blog about bands and tv shows. I made this one in 2016 because I want my tv shows and movie posts to be separated from my band blog. My band blog is less active now and has less followers lmao39: Do I and my last ex hate each other?Don’t have an ex. Never dated anyone 40: Do I ever get “good morning” or “good night ” texts?Nope :/41: Have I ever kissed the last person you texted?No42: When did I last hold hands?My sister will grab my hands randomly haha43: How long does it take me to get ready in the morning?For school like 10 minutes but like if I’m going out and actually care about my appearance like an hour to an hour and a half 44: Have You shaved your legs in the past three days?Nope45: Where am I right now?The bath46: If I were drunk & can’t stand, who’s taking care of me?I have never drank (and tbh don’t plan on it) but probably my friends (?)47: Do I like my music loud or at a reasonable level?In my headphones: loud. In a public area: reasonable bc I don’t want to bother anyone 48: Do I live with my Mom and Dad?Yep I’m only 1649: Am I excited for anything?YES I AM MEETING AND SEEING AWOLNATION, JUDAH AND THE LION, AND DAN AND PHIL 50: Do I have someone of the opposite sex I can tell everything to?nope. I have 0 guys friends bc I go to an all girls school 51: How often do I wear a fake smile?Lmao when ever I talk to someone who talks for too long or when I’m talking to teachers 52: When was the last time I hugged someone?Like 2 weeks ago not sure 53: What if the last person I kissed was kissing someone else right in front of me?I never kissed anyone lmao54: Is there anyone I trust even though I should not?Haha yep55: What is something I disliked about today?My body 56: If I could meet anyone on this earth, who would it be?Frank iero (or Gerard Way or Chris Martin) 57: What do I think about most?How much i hate my body and how much I miss my Chemical Romance 58: What’s my strangest talent?I don’t really have any talents (I can whistle really well) 59: Do I have any strange phobias?Ladybugs60: Do I prefer to be behind the camera or in front of it?Either (I want to become a film maker or an actor so)61: What was the last lie I told?Told my friend I was busy the other day when really I just wanted to be alone and watch Lucifer and runaways 62: Do I perfer talking on the phone or video chatting online?Depends on the person but usually phone 63: Do I believe in ghosts? How about aliens?No for ghost yes for aliens 64: Do I believe in magic?Nope65: Do I believe in luck?Nope66: What’s the weather like right now?Super cold but I like lt (like 33 degrees and sunny) (0 degrees if your a Celsius person)67: What was the last book I’ve read?I am reading the umbrella academy comic by Gerard Way currently but for a book... I don’t really like to read books (for school I just read summary’s lmao) so the last full book I read was probably the hobbit in middle school (I love that book)68: Do I like the smell of gasoline?Yes 69: Do I have any nicknames?Abea, Dabby, anby70: What was the worst injury I’ve ever had?I got a cut on the top of the head when I was little and my dad had to stick it back 71: Do I spend money or save it?I try to save it but it usually doesn’t happen 72: Can I touch my nose with a tounge?No 73: Is there anything pink in 10 feets from me?Yes, a shampoo bottle 74: Favourite animal?CATS75: What was I doing last night at 12 AM?Watching Stephen Colbert 76: What do I think is Satan’s last name is?Either trump or Morningstar (I have been watching too much Lucifer Help)77: What’s a song that always makes me happy when I hear it?Vampire money, famous last words by My Chemical Romance Mr. Brightside by the Killers 78: How can you win my heart?Liking the same music or shows and movies as me/Being able to listen to me rant about things I either love or hate 79: What would I want to be written on my tombstone?Idk something meaningful not sure yet 80: What is my favorite word?Idk I like the word nonchalant81: My top 5 blogs on tumblrI refuse to narrow it down to 5 82: If the whole world were listening to me right now, what would I say?Listen to conventional weapons by My Chemical Romance 83: Do I have any relatives in jail?Nope84: I accidentally eat some radioactive vegetables. They were good, and what’s even cooler is that they endow me with the super-power of my choice! What is that power?Either teleportation/Shrink and grow at will/or change my appearance and look like whoever I want 85: What would be a question I’d be afraid to tell the truth on?Why I am sad86: What is my current desktop picture?I have like 10 back grounds but my main ones are my meet and greet with 30STM, a pic of frank iero I took at his show, and a pic of Matt Bellamy I took at a muse show 87: Had sex?No but I would like to 88: Bought condoms?Nope89: Gotten pregnant?Nope and hopefully I never will90: Failed a class?Nope91: Kissed a boy?Nope, but I would like to 92: Kissed a girl?No, but I would like to93: Have I ever kissed somebody in the rain?Nope94: Had job?Nope95: Left the house without my wallet?Yep96: Bullied someone on the internet?No97: Had sex in public?Nope98: Played on a sports team?Yep, I swam and played soccer when I was younger 99: Smoked weed?Nope but I would like to100: Did drugs?No101: Smoked cigarettes?No and I don’t want to102: Drank alcohol?Yes, my parents will let me try their drinks. I have never liked them 103: Am I a vegetarian/vegan?I don’t eat any meat besides occasionally chicken 104: Been overweight?Yep105: Been underweight?Nope106: Been to a wedding?Yep107: Been on the computer for 5 hours straight?Yep108: Watched TV for 5 hours straight?Yep 109: Been outside my home country?Yep110: Gotten my heart broken?Kinda, one of my friends told me some pretty awful shit that made me hate myself and convince my self I have no friends so I hate her now and we used to be very close but whatever 111: Been to a professional sports game?Yep112: Broken a bone?I broke my finger once113: Cut myself?No but I have tried 114: Been to prom?No but I will this year !115: Been in airplane?Yep (was actually on one yesterday haha)116: Fly by helicopter?Nope117: What concerts have I been to?Boi so many. I have been to over 15Including Fall Out Boy Three Times Panic! At the Disco 3 times Twenty one pilots 3 timesWeezer 3 times (a 4th this summer)PVRIS 3 timesMuse30 Seconds to Mars Coldplay Frank iero and the Patience Bastille twice Judah and the lionBlink-182Green DayMaroon 5 118: Had a crush on someone of the same sex?Yep, I currently do119: Learned another language?Nope 120: Wore make up?Yes, I love makeup 121: Lost my virginity before I was 18?Nope, I’m only 16 though 122: Had oral sex?Nope123: Dyed my hair?Yep124: Voted in a presidential election?Nope125: Rode in an ambulance?Nope126: Had a surgery?I got my wisdom teeth removed does that count (?)127: Met someone famous?Yep, 30stm(Jared Leto), Tyler Joseph of twenty one pilots, panic! At the Disco, misha and Jared and Jensen from Supernatural, and Victoria justice 128: Stalked someone on a social network?Yep129: Peed outside?Yep130: Been fishing?Yes I hated it 131: Helped with charity?Yep 132: Been rejected by a crush?I have never asked anyone out 133: Broken a mirror?Nope 134: What do I want for birthday?Concert tickets, a s.o.135: How many kids do I want and what will be their names?I never want kids omfg 136: Was I named after anyone?I don’t think so 137: Do I like my handwriting?Hahah no 138: What was my favourite toy as a child?I loved Thomas the train shit139: Favourite Tv Show?Either the 100, sherlock, or Gotham 140: Where do I want to live when older?I would like to live in Europe for some time in my life but I’ll probably stay in Tennessee for most of my life but I would love to travel everywhere 141: Play any musical instrument?No but I am trying to learn bass 142: One of my scars, how did I get it?There’s a scar on my knee from when i was climbing rocks to get to a rope swing and I scraped my leg on a rock 143: Favourite pizza toping?Extra cheesy haha (also cold pizza is better)144: Am I afraid of the dark?No I love the dark145: Am I afraid of heights?No I LOVE heights omg 146: Have I ever got caught sneaking out or doing anything bad?No bc I don’t really like doing bad things 147: Have I ever tried my hardest and then gotten disappointed in the end?Yep haha148: What I’m really bad atTalking about my feelings 149: What my greatest achievments arePassing some hard classes, swimming a 50 freestyle in under 30 Seconds 150: The meanest thing somebody has ever said to meOh boy that “friend” to me that:-no one cares about me-I have no close friends -I’m selfish -I take what I want from others -I pride myself on being nice 151: What I’d do if I won in a lotteryUse most of it to have a safe future but some for concert tickets and band stuff 152: What do I like about myselfTbh nothing, maybe the fact that I am ok at makeup (?)153: My closest Tumblr friendDon’t really have any close Tumblr friends. MESSAGE ME IF YOU WANT TO 154: Something I fantasise abouta My Chemical Romance reunion, what it would be like to be in a relationship 155: Any question you’d like??

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theliberaltony · 6 years ago

Link

via Politics – FiveThirtyEight

The partial government shutdown is beginning to drag on President Trump’s approval rating, which is at its lowest point in months. As of early Wednesday evening, his approval rating was 40.2 percent, according to our tracking of public polling, down from 42.2 percent on Dec. 21, the day before the shutdown began. It’s his lowest score since last September. And Trump’s disapproval rating was 54.8 percent, up from 52.7 percent before the shutdown. His net approval rating, -14.6 percent, was at its lowest point since February 2018.

There shouldn’t be much doubt that the shutdown is behind the negative turn in Trump’s numbers. While there have been other newsworthy events over the past few weeks, such as turnover among Trump’s senior staffers and a wobbly stock market, the shift is well-timed to the start of the shutdown on Dec. 22. Trump’s approval ratings had been steady at about 42 percent for several months before the shutdown. Since then, they’ve been declining at a fairly linear rate of about half a point for every week that the shutdown has been underway, while his disapproval rating has increased by half a point per week. Trump’s increasingly negative ratings match polling showing Americans growing concerned about the shutdown and disliking Trump’s handling of it. In a Marist College poll that was released this week, for example, 61 percent of respondents said the shutdown had given them a more negative view of Trump, while just 28 percent said they felt more positively toward him.

So all of that sounds pretty bad for Trump. But will any of it really matter to Trump’s political standing, in the long run?

The glib answer is “probably not.” We’re a loooong way from the presidential election. And presidential approval ratings, as well as those for congressional leaders, typically rebound within a couple of months of a shutdown ending. A shutdown in October 2013 that caused a steep decline in ratings for congressional Republicans didn’t prevent them from having a terrific midterm in 2014, for instance.

Also consider the insane velocity of the news cycle under President Trump. If the shutdown were to end on Feb. 15, and special counsel Robert Mueller’s report on the Russia investigation were to drop the next day, would anyone still be talking about the shutdown?

Moreover, there hasn’t been that much of a shift, so far. In the context of the narrow historic range of President Trump’s approval ratings, which have rarely been higher than 43 percent or lower than 37 percent, a 2-point shift might seem relatively large. But it’s still just 2 points, when many past presidents saw there numbers gyrate up and down by 5 or 10 points at a time.

But I wonder if that answer isn’t a little too glib. There are some reasons for Trump and Republicans to worry that the shutdown could have both short- and long-term downsides.

For one thing, there’s no particular sign that the shutdown is set to end any time soon. And if the decline in Trump’s approval rating were to continue at the same rate that it has so far, it would take his political standing from bad to worse. By Jan. 29, for example, the day that Trump was originally set to deliver the State of the Union address before House Speaker Nancy Pelosi disinvited him from addressing Congress, his approval rating would be 39.3 percent, and his disapproval rating would be 55.9 percent. By March 1, at which point funding for federal food stamps could run out, his approval rating and disapproval rating would be 36.9 percent and 58.4 percent, respectively, roughly matching the lowest point of his presidency so far.

In addition, because this is already the longest shutdown in U.S. history, past precedent for the political impact of shutdowns may not be fully informative. There’s the possibility that the shutdown ends not with a whimper (with Trump caving or with he and Pelosi anticlimactically reaching a compromise) but instead with a literal or proverbial bang, such as the government bungling a response to a natural or man-made disaster.

A prolonged shutdown could also materially affect the economy, although there could be some catch-up growth later. A temporary decline in GDP or consumer confidence probably wouldn’t affect Trump’s re-election, although a long-term decline obviously would.

Despite those possibilities, I’d still put a lot of weight toward our historical priors, which contain relatively good news for Trump. With almost 22 months to go until the election, it’s too early for either approval ratings or economic data to be highly predictive of a president’s re-election chances. Furthermore, approval ratings tend to rebound after shutdowns, and in any event, the decline in Trump’s numbers hasn’t been all that large, yet.

Nonetheless, if I were hoping for Trump’s re-election, there are two indirect reasons that the shutdown and its fallout would worry me. One has to do with his relationship with the congressional GOP; the other with his strategic posture toward his re-election bid.

The shutdown may have frayed Trump’s relationship with Republicans in Congress

Republican leaders in Congress didn’t want the shutdown in the first place. Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell and former Majority Whip John Cornyn originally thought they’d talked Trump out of shutting down the government — “I don’t know anybody on the Hill that wants a shutdown, and I think all the president’s advisers are telling him this would not be good,” Cornyn told Politico on Dec. 18 — before Trump shifted strategies in response to right-wing pressure.

Meanwhile, two of the most vulnerable Republican senators — Colorado’s Cory Gardner and Maine’s Susan Collins — have called for an end to the shutdown. Another, North Carolina’s Thom Tillis, has called for a compromise with Democrats on the border wall and DACA, a deal that the White House rejected last year.

So it isn’t entirely surprising that Republicans in both the House and the Senate have starkly and sometimes sarcastically critiqued Trump’s shutdown strategy.

Congressional Republicans are not a group Trump can easily afford to lose. They have a lot of power to check Trump’s presidency, from modest measures such as treating his Cabinet nominations with more scrutiny to extreme ones like supporting his impeachment and removal from office. Obviously that’s getting way, way ahead of ourselves, and Trump’s approval ratings remain very strong among Republicans for now. That may constrain how much members of Congress push back against the president. But the conventional wisdom is arguably too dismissive of the possibility of an inflection point. Richard Nixon’s approval ratings had been in the low-to-mid-80s among Republican voters for years, but they suddenly fell into the 50s over the course of a few months in 1973. He resigned in August 1974.

The shutdown has prompted Trump to double down on his all-base, all-the-time strategy

But if Trump wants to get re-elected, his biggest problem isn’t what Republicans think about him; it’s what the rest of the country does.

The lesson of the midterms, in my view, was fairly clear: Trump’s base isn’t enough. The 2018 midterms weren’t unique in the scale of Republican losses: losing 40 or 41 House seats is bad, but the president’s party usually does poorly at the midterms. Rather, it’s that these losses came on exceptionally high turnout of about 119 million voters, which is considerably closer to 2016’s presidential year turnout (139 million) than to the previous midterm in 2014 (83 million). Republicans did turn out in huge numbers for the midterms, but the Democratic base — which is larger than the Republican one — turned out also, and independent voters strongly backed Democratic candidates for the House.

Plenty of presidents, including Obama, Clinton and Reagan, recovered from poor midterms to get re-elected. But those presidents typically sought to pivot or “triangulate” toward the center; we don’t know if the political rebound occurs if the pivot doesn’t. Instead, Trump has moved in the opposite direction. Despite some initial attempts at reaching out to the center, such as in passing a criminal justice bill in December and issuing trial balloons about an infrastructure package, Trump’s strategy of shutting down the government to insist on a border wall was aimed at placating his critics on the right, such as Rush Limbaugh and Ann Coulter, and members of the House Freedom Caucus.

Maybe Trump took some of the wrong lessons from 2016. Trump may mythologize 2016 as an election in which he was brought into the White House on the strength of his base, but that isn’t necessarily why he won. And even if it was, trying to duplicate the strategy might not work again:

Trump probably won’t face off against an opponent as unpopular as Hillary Clinton, by some measures the most unpopular candidate in general election history except for Trump himself.

He won’t necessarily be the preferred candidate for voters who are on the fence between Trump and his opponent. (In 2016, voters who disliked both Clinton and Trump went for Trump by 17 points.)

If he’s pursuing policies such as shutting down the government to demand a border wall, swing voters may no longer see Trump as a moderate, as (somewhat contrary to the conventional wisdom) they did in 2016.

Trump might or might not benefit from the same Electoral College advantage that he had in 2016.

And he probably won’t have an FBI investigation against his opponent reopened 10 days before the election.

Given that, perhaps 2018 is a better model for 2020 than 2016. In the midterms, voting closely tracked Trump’s approval ratings, and he paid the price for his unpopularity. According to the exit poll, midterm voters disapproved of Trump’s performance by a net of 9 percentage points. Not coincidentally, Republicans also lost the popular vote for the House by 9 percentage points.

There’s plenty of time for Trump’s numbers to improve, but for now, they’re getting worse. So while the shutdown’s consequences may not last into 2020, it has been another step in the wrong direction at a moment when presidents have usually pivoted to the center.

#IFTTT #Politics – FiveThirtyEight #politics #538 #Nate Silver

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patriotsnet · 4 years ago

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How Many Republicans In Congress Support Trump

New Post has been published on https://www.patriotsnet.com/how-many-republicans-in-congress-support-trump/

How Many Republicans In Congress Support Trump

No Republicans In The Senate Have Said That They Would Approve Of Impeachment Proceedings Against Trump Cnn Noted Sen Ron Johnson Of Wisconsin Said That Trump Told Him He Had Withheld Aid Because Of Concerns About Corruption In Ukraine

Rep. Justin Amash of Michigan, who is a former Republican but now an Independent, has said that he supports impeachment proceedings, CNN reported.

Bill Weld, who is running against Trump, has said that Trump’s actions amount to treason. Weld ran on the Libertarian ticket in 2016, but he served as the Governor of Massachusetts from 1991 to 1997. He’s not currently in Congress.

So far, Republicans in Congress haven’t specifically stepped out to speak in favor of impeachment. Back in August, this was the same, with no Republicans in Congress supporting impeachment.

An Updating Tally Of How Often Every Member Of The House And The Senate Votes With Or Against The President

Trump margin: Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clinton’s

Trump score: How often a member votes in line with Trump’s position

Trump plus-minus: Difference between a member’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores

Member How often a member votes in line with Trump’s positionTrump scoreHow often a member votes in line with Trump’s position Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clinton’sTrump marginTrump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clinton’s How often a member is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 marginPredicted scoreHow often a member is expected to support Trump based on Trump’s 2016 margin Difference between a member’s actual and predicted Trump-support scoresTrump plus-minus

A Trump score is not calculated for members who have not voted. How this works »

* No longer in Congress.

Trump margin: Trump’s share of the vote in the 2016 election minus Clinton’s

Trump score: How often a member votes in line with Trump’s position

Trump plus-minus: Difference between a member’s actual and predicted Trump-support scores

Member

A Large Share Of Republicans Want Trump To Remain Head Of The Party Cnbc Survey Shows

A CNBC survey conducted in the days before former President Donald Trump‘s impeachment trial finds a large share of Republicans want him to remain head of their party, but a majority of Americans want him out of politics.

The CNBC All-America Economic Survey shows 54% of Americans want Trump “to remove himself from politics entirely.” That was the sentiment of 81% of Democrats and 47% of Independents, but only 26% of Republicans.

When it comes to Republicans, 74% want him to stay active in some way, including 48% who want him to remain head of the Republican Party, 11% who want him to start a third party, and 12% who say he should remain active in politics but not as head of any party.

“If we’re talking about Donald Trump’s future, at the moment, the survey shows he still has this strong core support within his own party who really want him to continue to be their leader,” said Jay Campbell, a partner with Hart Research and the Democratic pollster for the survey.

But Micah Roberts, the survey’s Republican pollster, and a partner with Public Opinion Strategies, emphasized the change from when Trump was president. Polls before the election regularly showed Trump with GOP approval ratings around 90%, meaning at least some Republicans have defected from Trump.

Squawk on the Street

Gop In Ousting Cheney Send Message You Can’t Be In Leadership If You Contradict Trump

Republicans plan to remove Cheney as chair of the House Republican Conference, the No. 3 position in House GOP leadership, in a move to demote the highest-ranking Republican who voted to impeach Trump early this year. She has vocally criticized Trump’s “big lie” that the election last year was stolen.

Ayers warned that efforts to exile Cheney — the highest-ranking Republican woman in Washington and the daughter of former Vice President Dick Cheney — could further antagonize suburban voters, particularly college-educated women, who ditched the party because of their opposition to Trump.

“They will also say there’s no room in today’s Republican Party for anyone willing to be honest about the 2020 election and the events of Jan. 6,” Ayres said. “That does not strike me as the best way to get back the suburban voters who’ve left the party in the last few years.”

That message was echoed by Sen. Mitt Romney, R-Utah, and Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, on Monday.

“Expelling Liz Cheney from leadership won’t gain the GOP one additional voter, but it will cost us quite a few,” Romney, the GOP’s 2012 presidential nominee, said in a tweet.

Said Collins: “I believe Liz Cheney is an honorable leader with great strength and did what she felt was right. And our party should be big enough to accommodate people with a wide variety of views.”

She indicated that removing Cheney for her pushback to Trump could send the wrong message to voters. “The issue is being inclusive,” Collins said.

Gop Leader Mccarthy: Trump ‘bears Responsibility’ For Violence Won’t Vote To Impeach

Some ambitious Republican senators have never been as on board the Trump train as the more feverish GOP members in the House, and the former might be open to convicting Trump. But their ambition cuts two ways — on the one hand, voting to ban Trump opens a lane to carry the Republican mantle in 2024 and be the party’s new standard-bearer, but, on the other, it has the potential to alienate many of the 74 million who voted for Trump, and whose votes they need.

It’s a long shot that Trump would ultimately be convicted, because 17 Republicans would need to join Democrats to get the two-thirds majority needed for a conviction. But it’s growing clearer that a majority of the Senate will vote to convict him, reflecting the number of Americans who are in favor of impeachment, disapproved of the job Trump has done and voted for his opponent in the 2020 presidential election.

Correction Jan. 14, 2021

A previous version of this story incorrectly said Rep. Peter Meijer is a West Point graduate. Meijer attended West Point, but he is a graduate of Columbia University.

House Votes To Impeach Trump But Senate Trial Unlikely Before Biden’s Inauguration

9. Rep. John Katko, New York’s 24th: Katko is a moderate from an evenly divided moderate district. A former federal prosecutor, he said of Trump: “It cannot be ignored that President Trump encouraged this insurrection.” He also noted that as the riot was happening, Trump “refused to call it off, putting countless lives in danger.”

10. Rep. David Valadao, California’s 21st: The Southern California congressman represents a majority-Latino district Biden won 54% to 44%. Valadao won election to this seat in 2012 before losing it in 2018 and winning it back in the fall. He’s the rare case of a member of Congress who touts his willingness to work with the other party. Of his vote for impeachment, he said: “President Trump was, without question, a driving force in the catastrophic events that took place on January 6.” He added, “His inciting rhetoric was un-American, abhorrent, and absolutely an impeachable offense.”

Gop Rep Reveals How Many Colleagues Actually Believe Trumps Election Conspiracies

Lee Moran

Rep. Adam Kinzinger said Friday that only a handful of his Republican colleagues in the House actually believe ex-President Donald Trump’s election lies.

The vast majority of House Republicans, Kinzinger told CNN’s Jake Tapper, were simply boarding the Trump train in a desperate bid to preserve their jobs.

“How many actually believe it? Five, probably, if that, maybe? I don’t know, but it’s in the single, it’s low,” said Kinzinger, a vocal critic of Trump who defied his party to vote for the impeachment of the former president for inciting the deadly U.S. Capitol riot.

“People don’t believe it,” he continued. “But what they are doing is they’re sitting around saying, ‘I need to continue to exist in this job so that I can make an impact. I don’t have the courage or the strength or the ability to swing this party, so I’m going to just kinda put my head down and go along.’”

“Some people have made the decision that grabbing onto the Trump train again, even though it’s been derailed, is the best way for us to push whatever,” Kinzinger added. Others, meanwhile, “just want to destroy the place.”

Kinzinger said GOP backing of Trump’s conspiracy theories may give the party a “temporary hit, maybe you’ll win the majority, I don’t think you will.”

“But I guarantee you in the long arc of history, this is not going to bode well for Republicans,” he added.

Watch the video here:

Have Expressed Reluctance Or Misgivings But Havent Openly Dropped Their Backing

Paul Ryan and John Boehner, the former speakers of the House: Both have expressed their dislike of the president, but have not said whom they will support in November.

John Kelly, a former chief of staff to the president: Mr. Kelly has not said whom he plans to vote for, but did say he wished “we had some additional choices.”

Senator Lisa Murkowski of Alaska: She has said that she’s grappling with whether to support Mr. Trump in November. She told reporters on Capitol Hill in June: “I am struggling with it. I have struggled with it for a long time.”

She said: “I think right now, as we are all struggling to find ways to express the words that need to be expressed appropriately, questions about who I’m going to vote for or not going to vote for, I think, are distracting at the moment. I know people might think that’s a dodge, but I think there are important conversations that we need to have as an American people among ourselves about where we are right now.”

Mark Sanford, a former congressman and governor of South Carolina: Mr. Sanford briefly challenged the president in this cycle’s Republican primary, and said last year that he would support Mr. Trump if the president won the nomination .

That has since changed.

“He’s treading on very thin ice,” Mr. Sanford said in June, worrying that the president is threatening the stability of the country.

Maggie Haberman contributed reporting.

Trump Calls For ‘no Violence’ As Congress Moves To Impeach Him For Role In Riot

This time, there will be more. Some Republican senators have called on Trump to resign, and even Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell said he is undecided at this point.

Trump’s impeachment won’t lead to his removal — even if he is convicted — because of the timeline. The Senate is adjourned until Tuesday. The next day, Biden will be sworn in as the 46th president. But there’s another penalty the Constitution allows for as a result of a Senate conviction that could be appealing to some Republican senators — banning Trump from holding “office” again.

While there is some debate as to the definition of “office” in the Constitution and whether that would apply to running for president or even Congress, that kind of public rebuke would send a strong message — that Republicans are ready to move on from Trumpism.

Just 27 Of 249 Republicans In Congress Willing To Say Trump Lost Survey Finds

Two congressmen tell Washington Post Trump beat Biden

Does Trump really plan to absolve himself and his family?

Only 27 of 249 Republicans in Congress are willing to admit Joe Biden won the presidential election, a survey found on Saturday.

The election was called for Biden on 7 November, four days after election day. The Democrat won the electoral college by 306-232 and leads in the popular vote by more than 7m ballots.

But Trump has refused to concede, baselessly claiming large-scale voter fraud in battleground states.

The survey of Republicans in the House and Senate was carried out by the Washington Post, a paper Trump promptly claimed to read “as little as possible”.

The president also said he was “surprised so many” in his party thought he had been beaten, promised “we have just begun to fight” and asked for a list of the politicians he called “Rinos”, an acronym for “Republicans in name only”.

Two congressmen, Mo Brooks of Georgia and Paul Gosar of Arizona, told the Post Trump won. Gosar said he would never accept Biden as president, telling the paper there was “too much evidence of fraud”.

In fact, there is no evidence of voter fraud anywhere near the scale Trump alleges in any of the key states in which he is pursuing legal redress, so far winning one lawsuit but losing 46.

The Post said it had obtained video of Perdue telling donors Biden won.

Mitch McConnell, the Senate majority leader, and Kevin McCarthy, who leads the House minority, have dodged questions.

Rep Tim Ryan: Probe Underway On Whether Members Gave Capitol Tours To Rioters

7. Rep. Jaime Herrera Beutler, Washington’s 3rd: Herrera Beutler was swept in with the Tea Party wave in 2010, but her district is a moderate one. Trump won it 51% to 47%. Herrera Beutler gained prominence several years ago for giving birth to a child three months early, born without kidneys and a rare syndrome. Her daughter, Abigail, became the first to survive the often-fatal condition. The now-mother of three and congresswoman from southwest Washington state declared on the House floor her vote in favor of impeachment: “I’m not choosing sides, I’m choosing truth.”

8. Rep. Peter Meijer, Michigan’s 3rd: Meijer is a freshman, who won his seat with 53% of the vote. He represents a district that was previously held by Justin Amash, the former Republican-turned-independent who voted in favor of Trump’s impeachment in 2019. Meijer, a Columbia University grad who served in Afghanistan, is a social conservative in favor of restrictions on abortion rights and against restrictions on gun rights and religious freedoms. But he said Trump showed no “courage” and “betrayed millions with claims of a ‘stolen election.’ ” He added, “The one man who could have restored order, prevented the deaths of five Americans including a Capitol police officer, and avoided the desecration of our Capitol, shrank from leadership when our country needed it most.”

In Demoting Cheney Gop Holds On To Trump At Risk Of Further Alienating Others

Allan SmithSahil Kapur

Liz Cheney may be done with former President Donald Trump, but her impending ouster from House Republican leadership is a clear sign, party insiders say, that the GOP isn’t done with Trump.

The calculation is that the party will be better off in the midterm elections embracing Trump than running from him, even if it means further alienating the kind of suburban voters who handed Democrats victories in 2018 and 2020.

“Removing Liz Cheney from leadership will give a boatload of ammunition to the GOP’s critics,” said Whit Ayres, a Republican pollster.

Republican Groups Censure Party Lawmakers Who Voted To Impeach Convict Trump

Kinzinger said 11 family members sent him a handwritten two-page note that started, “Oh my, what a disappointment you are to us and to God!” The letter accused him of working with “the devil’s army,” which it said included Democrats and the “fake news media.” “We thought you were ‘smart’ enough to see how the left is brainwashing many ‘so called good people’ including yourself” and other Republicans. “You have even fallen for their socialism ideals! So, so sad!” “It is now most embarrassing to us that we are related to you,” the family members wrote. “You have embarrassed the Kinzinger family name.” Kinzinger said the family members suffered from “brainwashing” at conservative churches. “I hold nothing against them,’’ he said, “but I have zero desire or feel the need to reach out and repair that. That is 100% on them to reach out and repair, and quite honestly, I don’t care if they do or not.” Kinzinger said he knows his vote against Trump could imperil his political career but that he “couldn’t live with myself” if “the one time I was called to do a really tough duty, I didn’t do it.”

List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2016 Presidential Campaign

This article is part of a series about

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who announced their opposition to the election of Donald Trump, the 2016 Republican Party nominee and eventual winner of the election, as the President of the United States. It also includes former Republicans who left the party due to their opposition to Trump and as well as Republicans who endorsed a different candidate. It includes Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the nominee. Some of the Republicans on this list threw their support to Trump after he won the presidential election, while many of them continue to oppose Trump. Offices listed are those held at the time of the 2016 election.

List Of Republicans Who Opposed The Donald Trump 2020 Presidential Campaign

This article is part of a series about

This is a list of Republicans and conservatives who opposed the re-election of incumbent Donald Trump, the 2020 Republican Party nominee for President of the United States. Among them are former Republicans who left the party in 2016 or later due to their opposition to Trump, those who held office as a Republican, Republicans who endorsed a different candidate, and Republican presidential primary election candidates that announced opposition to Trump as the presumptive nominee. Over 70 former senior Republican national security officials and 61 additional senior officials have also signed onto a statement declaring, “We are profoundly concerned about our nation’s security and standing in the world under the leadership of Donald Trump. The President has demonstrated that he is dangerously unfit to serve another term.”

A group of former senior U.S. government officials and conservatives—including from the Reagan, Bush 41, Bush 43, and Trump administrations have formed The Republican Political Alliance for Integrity and Reform to, “focus on a return to principles-based governing in the post-Trump era.”

A third group of Republicans, Republican Voters Against Trump was launched in May 2020 has collected over 500 testimonials opposing Donald Trump.

Democratic Insider And A Republican Backed By Trump Win Ohio House Races

The victories by Shontel Brown, a Democrat supported by the national establishment, and Mike Carey, a Republican endorsed by Donald Trump, provided a lift to the leadership of both parties.

A Democratic candidate backed by the party establishment and a Republican endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump won two primary races for open House seats in Ohio on Tuesday, an assertion of dominance for the leadership of both political parties as they face questions over unity in their ranks.

In a Democratic primary in northern Ohio, Shontel Brown, who vowed to be “a partner” with the Biden administration and Speaker Nancy Pelosi, prevailed over Nina Turner, a party outsider who openly rejected the idea that Democrats are more effective through conciliation and compromise. Late Tuesday, Ms. Brown was leading by over five percentage points, and Ms. Turner conceded the race.

And in a Republican primary near Columbus, Mike Carey, a newcomer to elected office who was largely unknown before being endorsed by Mr. Trump, easily beat out 11 rivals, many of them with much longer records in Ohio politics.

Between the two races, the Democratic fight for the deep-blue 11th District around Cleveland and Akron was the most closely watched as a national bellwether. Prominent Democratic politicians and money from national interest groups cascaded into the district over the past several weeks, leaving a trail of ill will and weariness in their wake.

Marjorie Taylor Greene: Us House Votes To Strip Republican Of Key Posts

The US House of Representatives has voted to expel a Republican congresswoman from two committees over incendiary remarks she made before being elected last November.

Marjorie Taylor Greene had promoted baseless QAnon conspiracy theories and endorsed violence against Democrats.

Before the vote, she said she regretted her views, which included claims that school shootings and 9/11 were staged.

Eleven Republicans joined the Democrats to pass the motion by 230-199.

The Republican dilemma, embodied in one politician

It means the representative – who was elected in November, representing a district in the southern state of Georgia – cannot take up her place on the education and budget committees.

This would limit her ability to shape policy as most legislation goes through a committee before reaching the House floor. Committee positions can determine the influence of individual lawmakers in their party.

It is highly unusual for one party to intervene in another party’s House committee assignments.

On Friday, Mrs Greene said that she woke up “laughing” at the situation.

“I woke up early this morning literally laughing thinking about what a bunch of morons the Democrats are for giving some one like me free time,” she tweeted, referencing the 11 Republicans who also voted to remove her.

At a news conference in Washington hours later, Mrs Greene said that Democrats had “stripped my district of their voice” by removing her from the committees.

Republicans Supporting Donald Trump In The 2016 Presidential Election

Elected officials’ positions on Donald Trump Federal:Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump • Republicans supporting Donald Trump • Republicans opposing Donald Trump State and local:

See also: Republicans and their declared positions on Donald Trump

In a typical general election year, elected officials readily line up behind their party’s presidential nominee. In 2012, for example, The Hill reported that only four Republican members of Congress had declined to endorse Mitt Romney by mid-September of that year. “All other House and Senate Republicans” had already endorsed the Republican nominee.

But 2016 was not a typical general election year.

Controversial comments from the GOP’s 2016 nominee, Donald Trump, about women, Muslims, , and caused some Republican lawmakers to distance themselves from the businessman, while others outright denounced him.

This page tracked Republican lawmakers who openly declared their support for Trump during the 2016 presidential election.

More Than 150 House Democrats Support Starting An Impeachment Process

In total, 145 Democrats have backed impeachment as of Monday night, The Washington Post reported. That number is in the 150s as of Tuesday morning. However, some Democrats believe that some Republicans also need to get on board before impeachment can proceed.

Seven freshman Democrats wrote an op-ed in The Washington Post saying that impeachment is necessary if the allegations are true. These were all in the House. They are:

Rep. Gil Cisneros of California

Rep. Jason Crow of Colorado

Rep. Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania

Rep. Elaine Luria of Virginia

Rep. Mikie Sherrill of New Jersey

Rep. Elissa Slotkin of Michigan

Rep. Abigail Spanberger of Virginia

In addition, the following Democratic House members have recently publicly supported calls for impeachment:

Rep. Dean Phillips

Rep. Rosa L. DeLauro

Rep. Adam Schiff, the House Intelligence Committee Chairman, said impeachment “may be the only remedy” if the Ukraine reports are true

Rep. Brad Sherman

If all 435 House members vote, they would need 218 votes for a majority to be reached and for Trump to be impeached. There are 235 Democrats in office in the House, one Independent, and 199 Republicans.

NBC News counted a total of 134 Democrats who said they would support starting an impeachment inquiry process back in May. Now after the Ukraine news, CNN notes there are 151 Democrats calling for impeachment inquiries. Here’s the full list below. The names with asterisks next to them also called for impeachment in May.

Republicans Vote Against Measure; Bill Faces Uphill Fight In Senate

In this Jan. 6 file photo, supporters of then-President Donald Trump try to break through a police barrier at the Capitol in Washington.

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WASHINGTON — Thirty-five House Republicans joined Democrats Wednesday in voting to create a bipartisan commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, risking the wrath of former President Donald Trump and flouting GOP leaders who condemned the proposal as unfairly partisan and unneeded.

Modeled after the investigation into the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks, the legislation would establish an independent, 10-member commission that would make recommendations by the end of the year for securing the Capitol and preventing another insurrection. It passed the House 252-175.

The Republican mavericks were led by New York Rep. John Katko, who wrote the measure with Homeland Security Committee Chairman Bennie Thompson, D-Miss. Katko, that panel’s top Republican, was battling two tides that have overwhelmed Congress in recent years: the nearly overwhelming potency Trump still has among Republicans and a jagged-edged partisanship that often confounds even mundane legislation.

“I encourage all members, Republicans and Democrats alike, to put down their swords for once, just for once, and support this bill,” said Katko.

“This is about fact. It is not partisan politics,” he said pointedly.

“Leader McCarthy won’t take yes for an answer,” she said

House Impeaches Trump A 2nd Time Citing Insurrection At Us Capitol

This vote could expose some of them to potential primary challenges from the right as well as possible safety threats, but for all of them Trump had simply gone too far. Multiple House Republicans said threats toward them and their families were factors weighing on their decisions on whether to impeach this president.

Ten out of 211 Republicans in the House is hardly an overwhelmingly bipartisan vote, and clearly, most Republicans’ sympathies still lie with Trump — and his ardent base of followers. But the 10 represent something significant — the most members of a president’s party to vote for his impeachment in U.S. history.

How Wyoming Voters Are Reacting To Rep Cheneys Leadership Battle

Many Republicans, including McCarthy, have decided that the path to retake majority control of the House requires embracing Trump, which means either repeating his false assertions that the election was stolen or keeping quiet, neither of which Cheney has been willing to do.

McCarthy has long viewed Trump as important to helping him become the next House speaker — and important to helping Republicans win the midterm elections — said a House Republican aide who works for neither McCarthy or Cheney.

The aide described the leadership fight as “a s— show” and “something that should never really have happened,” expressing anger over its handling.

“I think it’s dumb when we always try to claim that we’re this big party that we’re pushing out someone who has a slightly different opinion,” the aide said, adding, “It’s just absurd to me.”

Another senior Republican congressional aide argued that Cheney was likely to be removed because she keeps publicly disagreeing with McCarthy, not because of her criticism of Trump.

“As conference chair, was spending more time bashing Republicans than Democrats” at the recent House retreat, the aide said, adding that McCarthy “was literally the only thing keeping her in leadership.”

Many Republicans have lamented that the squabble is distracting from anti-Biden messaging, which is what they say will actually help them in the midterms.

It Doesnt Pay To Be A Congressional Republican Opposing Trump

Rep. Liz Cheney was sent a loud, clear message by her House Republican colleagues this week: oppose former president Donald Trump, and you’re out.

It’s a message that has been sent in less official ways before but by now is unmistakable for any congressional Republican who would dare to venture where she has. Most of them have been forced out in one way or another, with many voluntarily backing down and retiring. But we’re about to get a better sense for how politically tenable such a position could be in today’s GOP.

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Cheney hasn’t lost her congressional seat — though she already has challengers back home who want to run against her in the 2022 GOP primary. But her leadership position is gone and is likely going to a congresswoman who has made praising Trump her No. 1 priority. But Cheney has staked her political future on opposing Trump, saying she believes she can lead the party back from where it is now.

If she can actually leverage her opposition to Trump into some kind of political success — which appears unlikely at this point — she’d pretty much be the first. It hasn’t gone well for other elected Republicans, going all the way back to those who opposed Trump during his 2016 presidential run.

Flake announced he wouldn’t run for reelection just nine months into Trump’s presidency, becoming an early symbolic sacrifice — and a bit of a trophy for Trump. More than that, though, it sent a message.

Of those 11:

Trumps Kingmaking Plan Threatens Gops Congress Hopes In 2022

Bloomberg

— Donald Trump could hurt Republicans’ chances of regaining control of Congress in the 2022 midterms, just by endorsing the candidates working so hard to win his backing.

The former president is studying races and plans to bestow his superlative-laden endorsements around the country in many 2022 primary or general election contests for the U.S. House, Senate and governorships, according to a person familiar with his thinking.

Former President Donald Trump

Photographer: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg

While those nods can still be the golden ticket in a Republican primary and solidly GOP districts, they also can energize independents and Democrats who don’t like Trump in competitive districts — risking defeat for Republican candidates in the general election and with it possible control of the House, according to studies of the 2018 and 2020 campaigns.

History is on the Republicans’ side. Midterm elections generally favor the party out of power and redistricting is expected to change district lines in a way that gives the GOP an advantage.

Read More: Republicans Unhappy With Trump GOP See Path for Alternative

“The Republican Party cannot win swing districts where Donald Trump is still the dominating face and voice of this party,” Rahm Emanuel, President Barack Obama’s chief of staff, said Sunday on ABC’s “This Week.”

“And that’s where they’re going to take a historic opportunity in a midterm and pass it right by.”

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fullspectrum-cbd-oil · 5 years ago

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Can Sanders Beat Trump? a Growing Number of Democratic Voters Say Yes

Bernie Sanders’ Democratic presidential rivals warn that nominating the self-described democratic socialist will ensure President Donald Trump’s re-election, but a growing number of the party’s voters see the senator as their best chance of winning in November.

Sanders’ dominating performance in last week’s Nevada caucuses, powered by growing support across age, race and ideology, has set off alarm bells among Democratic Party officials who believe putting the progressive stalwart at the top of the ticket will harm the party’s chances up and down the ballot.

Sanders’ electability was a prime topic at Tuesday’s Democratic presidential debate in South Carolina. Rivals contended his ambitious liberal policy ideas, such as Medicare for All, which would replace private health insurance, would be an electoral “catastrophe,” costing the party the White House and control of Congress.

But the latest Reuters/Ipsos polling shows Sanders’ rising momentum in the race – a near win in Iowa, a narrow victory in New Hampshire and a decisive win in Nevada – has given him more credibility with Democratic voters.

Some 26% of Democrats and independents polled Feb. 17-25 said they believed Sanders was the strongest Democrat in a head-to-head matchup with Trump, compared with 20% who picked billionaire businessman Michael Bloomberg and 17% who named former Vice President Joe Biden.

That was a big change from a month earlier, when 27% of respondents gave Biden the edge, and just 17% thought Sanders could beat Trump.

In the Nevada caucuses, Sanders won the support of a majority of Latino voters and led among most demographic groups broken out by gender, income and political leanings in Nevada. Notable exceptions were those aged 65 years and older, as well as black voters, more of whom supported Biden.

That too could be changing. The same Reuters/Ipsos polling showed that Sanders had overtaken Biden in support among black voters nationally for the first time.

Saturday’s South Carolina primary will be the first major test of Sanders’ appeal among African-American voters, who represent about 60% of that state’s Democratic electorate.

Three days later, 14 states will cast ballots on Super Tuesday, when Sanders could build an overwhelming advantage if he captures the lion’s share of the available delegates.

His path has been smoothed by the fragmentation among the moderate candidates. Biden, former South Bend, Indiana, Mayor Pete Buttigieg and Senator Amy Klobuchar – all of whom say Sanders’ policies are too radical to win in November, have each recorded at least one top-three finish thus far, while Bloomberg’s name will appear on ballots for the first time on Super Tuesday.

‘NOT RADICAL’

Sanders argues the enthusiasm powering his campaign will lead to record turnout in November, particularly among young and infrequent voters, making up for any deficiency among swing voters or Republicans.

“A large voter turnout would mean that down-ballot Democrats will … do better than they have in the past,” Sanders told Reuters on Saturday in El Paso, Texas. “Our campaign is the campaign to do that: We have the energy, we have the excitement, we have the grassroots movement.”

At Tuesday’s debate, he said the biggest misconception about him, “and you’re hearing it here tonight, is that the ideas I’m talking about are radical.”

“They’re not. In one form or another, they exist in countries all over the world,” he added. “Healthcare is a human right. We have the necessity, the moral imperative, to address the existential threat of climate change. Other countries are doing that.”

The results in Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada have not provided evidence of a massive turnout surge, but Sanders’ fortunes have improved with each succeeding state contest.

“If you want to win in red and purple places, the most important thing you need is people who like you or who are willing to fight for you,” Senator Kirsten Gillibrand, who ended her own presidential bid last year, told MSNBC on Tuesday.

“You need passion, and what Bernie showed so far is that he’s got a lot of passion in his campaign.”

‘MAJOR CONCERNS’ AMONG MODERATES

After gaining a majority in the U.S. House of Representatives in 2018, dozens of Democrats will be defending seats in Republican-leaning areas. In recent weeks, several moderate Democrats openly fretted that Sanders at the top of the ticket would risk flipping those seats.

“I hear from constituents that they are afraid they are going to have a make a choice between a self-described socialist and an aspiring dictator,” said U.S. Representative Stephanie Murphy of Florida, co-chair of the congressional Blue Dog Coalition of moderate Democrats, referring to Sanders and Trump.

“That’s not a choice any American should make.”

Polling released by Bloomberg’s campaign on Tuesday showed voters in 42 of the most vulnerable House Democrats’ districts preferring Trump to Sanders.

Guy Cecil, chairman of Democratic super PAC Priorities USA, said Sanders “has some capacity to expand the Democratic vote among younger voters,” adding: “At the same time, he’ll need to make sure he’s doing more to reach out, in particular to those women – suburban women – that were really the benchmark of us taking over the House in 2018.”

Cameron Brand, 24, a patient care adviser at a medicinal dispensary in Plymouth, New Hampshire, said he knew people who voted for Trump in 2016 because they disliked mainstream Democrats, but would vote for Sanders.

“Although he is being labeled as this radical leftist or whatever, he actually does have a lot of policies that the majority of Americans agree on that cross party lines,” Brand said.

Entrance polls of Nevada caucus-goers from Edison Research showed more than 60% favored replacing private insurance with a government-run plan.

“He tells it like it is,” Brand said of Sanders. “He tells the truth.”

(Reporting by Joseph Ax in New York; Additional reporting by Richard Cowan, Julio-Cesar Chavez, Trevor Hunnicutt and Simon Lewis; Editing by Scott Malone, Soyoung Kim and Peter Cooney)

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